Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: Support for National-led Government and Labour-led Opposition remains tied in April
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for April 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 47.5%, unchanged, and effectively tied with the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition on 48%, unchanged, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National dropped 1% to 25.5% - its lowest level of support since National was elected to Government in late 2023, support for NZ First was up 0.5% to 11.5% - its highest level of support since being elected to Government, while support for ACT was up 0.5% to 10.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was unchanged on 34%, support for the Greens was unchanged on 11%, and support for Te Pāti Māori was unchanged on 3%.
A further 4.5% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 4% (unchanged) who support Opportunity and a further 0.5% (unchanged) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government and Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition set for 60 seats each
The survey results for April would lead to the National-led Government winning 60 seats (down eight seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 60 seats (up five seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 32 seats (down 17 seats from the election), NZ First would win 15 seats (up seven seats), and ACT would win 13 seats (up two seats) and
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 42 seats (up eight seats), Greens support would mean 14 seats (down one seat) and Te Pāti Māori would win four seats (down two seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 887 electors from March 30 – April 26, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2% (down 2% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 2.5 points to 75.5 in April
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 2.5 points to 75.5 in April. An unchanged majority of 56% of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 31.5% (down 2.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 80.3 in April and is 16.2 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 64.1 on May 4-10, 2026.
Younger people favour the Labour-led Opposition, older women and men favour the Government
A majority of 53% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 41% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, women clearly support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 55.5% ahead of the National-led Government on 41.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (70.5%) compared to 27.5% for the National-led Government. Support for Labour (43%), and the Greens (24%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Among younger men, there is now a clear advantage for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 49%, just ahead of the National-led governing coalition on 43%. Support for the Te Pāti Māori (5.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A majority of women aged 50+ favour the National-led Government (54.5%) ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (41%). The combined support for the two major parties, National (35%) and Labour (32.5%) at a total of 67.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A large majority of men aged 50+ support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (64.5%) compared to only 32% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. Support for ACT (15%) and New Zealand First (15%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | April 2026 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 14 | 35 | 26 | 18.5 | 34.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 13.5 | 12 | 15 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 7 | 11.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 15 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 47.5 | 41.5 | 27.5 | 54.5 | 53 | 43 | 64.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 34 | 37.5 | 43 | 32.5 | 30 | 33 | 27 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 10.5 | 3.5 |
| Te Pāti Māori** | 3.1 | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori | 41.6 | 48 | 55.5 | 70.5 | 41 | 41 | 49 | 32 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 | 4.5 | 6 | 8 | 3.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 31.5 | 29.5 | 21.5 | 38.5 | 33.5 | 32 | 35 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 56 | 60 | 70.5 | 49 | 51.5 | 47 | 56.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 75.5 | 69.5 | 51 | 89.5 | 82 | 85 | 78.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 8 | 12.5 | 15 | 21 | 8.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (82) is over 10 points higher than for women (69.5)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was down 2.5 points to 75.5 in April 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for women increased 2 points to 69.5 in April, while for men the Government Confidence Rating was down by 6 points to 82.
For men now 51.5% (down 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 33.5% (down 6.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – Government Confidence of 88. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence plummeted 24 points to 78.5, and for younger men aged 18-49 increased by 9.5 points to 85.
Among women a majority of 60% (unchanged) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 29.5% (up 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 69.5. Government Confidence for younger women aged 18-49 dropped a further 5 points to 51, while the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ increased by 9.5 points to 89.5 and is now the highest of any gender and age group analysed.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says there continues to be an effective tie between the National-led Government of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition only six months before this year’s New Zealand election in early November:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) was unchanged at 47.5% in April and is now effectively level with the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) on 48%, also unchanged on a month ago.
“Support for National dropped 1% point to 25.5% – the lowest level of support for National for over four years since September 2021 before the last New Zealand Election. Support for National’s governing partners has increased at National’s expense with New Zealand First up 0.5% points to 11.5% and ACT up 0.5% points to 10.5%.
“In contrast, support for Labour was unchanged at 34% – its equal highest level of support since August 2025, support for the Greens was unchanged at 11%, and support for potential third partner the Te Pāti Māori remains below the 5% threshold at only 3%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in a tie between the two sides – the National-led Government on 60 seats in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament dead level with the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition also on 60 seats. The ultimate size of the Parliament depends on any ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party wins seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly from older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (64.5% cf. 32%). Women aged 50+ also favour the National-led Government by a far narrower margin (54.5% cf. 41%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (70.5% cf. 27.5%). In addition, men aged 18-49 continue to favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (49% cf. 43%).
“Of concern for the Luxon-led Government will be the low Government Confidence Rating at only 75.5 – the lowest Government Confidence Rating since the election victory in late 2023.
“A clear majority of 56% (unchanged) of New Zealand electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 31.5% (down 2.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’. In addition, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence crashed 11 points to 80.3 in April its lowest level since May 2023.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
