ALP and One Nation support now level with L-NP down – today ALP would win the Federal Election

In the last week ALP primary support was virtually unchanged at 27%, now level with One Nation on 27%, and up 1.5% from a week ago, with both well ahead of the L-NP Coalition, down 3% to 20% - Liberals 17.5% (down 3.5%) and Nationals 2.5% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens was unchanged on 13.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties increased 2% to 12.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from May 25-31, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,542 electors.

The gap between One Nation (27%) and the L-NP Coalition (20%) has now widened to 7% points – the largest gap in favour of One Nation ever recorded by the Roy Morgan Poll.

ALP leads both the L-NP Coalition and One Nation on a two-party preferred basis – for the first time the result between ALP and One Nation is closer than between ALP and L-NP Coalition

On a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 55.5% (up 2.5%) is ahead of L-NP 44.5% (down 2.5%). When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 53.5% (up 1.5%) leads L-NP 46.5% (down 1.5%).

In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation the Morgan Poll estimates the ALP 53.5% leading One Nation 46.5% - the same as a week ago.

The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).

Roy Morgan will be providing an extensive analysis of the Australia’s 150 Federal Electorates in the next few weeks using the Helix Personas psychographic consumer segmentation and data integration tool which provides unique and incisive insights into the minds of Australian electors.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority in any of the above scenarios.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 69.5 – is up 4.5 points on a week ago and just over 30 points below the neutral level of 100:

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 4.5pts to 69.5 this week. A large majority of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 58.5% (down 2% points). Only 28% (up 2.5% points) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

There remain considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters increased 2.5 points to a very high 136.5 this week. However, for supporters of all other parties, Government Confidence continues to be below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 97.5 (up 9 points from a week ago), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 39.5 (up 5.5pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 54 (down 2pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 12 (down 1.5pts).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in May 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: May 4-10, 2026 (n=1,605), May 11-17, 2026 (n=1,668),
May 18-24, 2026 (n=1,613) and May 25-31, 2026 (n=1,542).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.