Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: National-led Government holds narrow majority (51%) of support in June
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for June 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) virtually unchanged at 51%, a clear lead over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, little changed on 42%.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National increased 0.5% to 31%, although support for NZ First was down 0.5% to 10.5%, and support for ACT was down 0.5% to 9.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 1% to 25.5%, support for the Greens increased 1% to 13.5%, and support for Te Pāti Māori increased 0.5% to 3%.
A further 7% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 6.5% (up 0.5%) who support Opportunity and a further 0.5% (down 0.5%) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government set for a slim Parliamentary majority of 61 seats
The survey results for June would lead to the National-led Government winning 61 seats (down seven seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 51 seats (down four seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 37 seats (down 12 seats from the election), NZ First would win 13 seats (up five seats), and ACT would win 11 seats (unchanged).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 31 seats (down three seats), Greens support would mean 16 seats (up one seat) and Te Pāti Māori would win four seats (down two seats).
In addition, Opportunity Party would win its first seats in Parliament with its support of 6% enough to secure the party eight seats.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 891 electors from May 25 – June 21, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 3.5 points to 88 in June
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 3.5 points to 88 in June. A majority of 49% (down 3% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 37% (up 0.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Men favour the National-led Government while women favour the Labour-led Opposition
A large majority of 63.5% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 27% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In addition, a majority of 56% of women favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition ahead of the National-led Government on 39%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (63%) compared to 30.5% for the National-led Government. Support for the Greens (23%), and Te Pāti Māori (8.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In addition, a narrow plurality of women aged 50+ favour the National-led Government (49%) ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (47.5%). The combined support for the two major parties, Labour (36%) and National (31%) at a total of 67% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Among younger men, there is a clear advantage for the National-led governing coalition on 55%, almost 20% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 33.5%.
A large majority of men aged 50+ support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (71.5%) compared to only 21.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. Support for National (42.5%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | June 2026 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31 | 26.5 | 22.5 | 31 | 35.5 | 28.5 | 42.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9.5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 10 | 12.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 51 | 39 | 30.5 | 47.5 | 63.5 | 55 | 71.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 25.5 | 34 | 31.5 | 36 | 17 | 20.5 | 14 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13.5 | 17.5 | 23 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 11 | 6.5 |
| Te Pāti Māori** | 3.1 | 3 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori | 41.6 | 42 | 56 | 63 | 49 | 27 | 33.5 | 21.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 7 | 5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 7 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 37 | 29.5 | 28 | 31 | 44.5 | 38.5 | 51.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 49 | 58.5 | 57 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 40 | 39 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 88 | 71 | 71 | 70.5 | 105 | 98.5 | 112.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 8.5 | 16 | 21.5 | 9.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (105) is over 30 points higher than for women (71)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 3.5 points to 88 in June 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for men increased 5 points to 105 in June, while for women the Government Confidence Rating was up 2 points to 71.
For men now 44.5% (unchanged) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 39.5% (down 5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – Government Confidence of 105. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence increased 9.5 points to 112.5, and for younger men aged 18-49 increased by 1 point to 98.5.
Among women a majority of 58.5% (down 1% point) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 29.5% (up 1% point) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 71. Government Confidence for younger women aged 18-49 was up 15 points to 716, while the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ dropped 12.5 points to 70.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government has remained strong in June with the Government maintaining a majority of support and on course to be re-elected at November’s election:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) has held steady in June, virtually unchanged at 51% and now 9% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) on 42% (virtually unchanged).
“Support for National was virtually unchanged at 31%, while support for National’s governing partners has softened in May. Support for New Zealand First was down 0.5% points to 10.5%, and support for ACT dropped 0.5% points to 9.5%.
“For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 1% to 25.5% – its lowest level of support since September 2024. The Greens were a beneficiary with their support up 1% to 13.5%, while support for Te Pāti Māori is below the 5% threshold at only 3%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in a bare majority of 61 seats in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament for the National-led Government. This is well ahead of the projected seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 51 seats, and with the Opportunity Party set to enter Parliament for the first time by winning eight seats.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly from both older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (71.5% cf. 21.5%) and men aged 18-49 (55% cf. 33.5%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (63% cf. 30.5%). Women aged 50+ also now favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (49% cf. 47.5%).
“There is further good news for the Luxon-led Government with the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increasing 3.5 points to 88 – its highest rating since September 2025.
“Now 49% (down 3% points) of New Zealand electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – the lowest figure for this indicator for exactly a year since June 2025, and 37% (up 0.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
