Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: In July National-led Government leads Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (49% vs. 41%)
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for July 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) down 2% to 49%, maintaining a clear lead over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, down 1% to 41%.
In addition, a further 10%, up 3% support independents and parties outside Parliament – the highest level of support for parties not represented in Parliament since the last election.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National increased 1% to 32%, although support for New Zealand First was down 2% to 8.5% (the lowest level of support for New Zealand First so far this year), and support for ACT was down 1% to 8.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was unchanged at 25.5%, support for the Greens was unchanged at 13.5%, and support for Te Pāti Māori decreased 1% to 2%.
A further 10% (up 3%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. Importantly, this includes 8% (up 1.5%) who support Opportunity and a further 2% (up 1.5%) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government set to win most seats but fall short of a majority with 59 seats
The survey results for July would lead to the National-led Government winning 59 seats (down nine seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 51 seats (down four seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 39 seats (down 10 seats from the election), NZ First would win 10 seats (up two seats), and ACT would win 10 seats (down one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 31 seats (down three seats), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and Te Pāti Māori would win three seats (down three seats).
In addition, Opportunity Party would win its first seats in Parliament with its support of 8% enough to secure the party ten seats, and crucially, the balance of power in the next Parliament.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 881 electors from June 29 – July 26, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3% (down 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating decreased 3 points to 85 in July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating decreased 3 points to 85 in July. A majority of 50.5% (up 1.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 35.5% (down 1.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Men favour the National-led Government while women favour the Labour-led Opposition
A majority of men (57.5%) favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 30.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, a majority of 51.5% of women favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition ahead of the National-led Government on 41%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (60%) compared to 28.5% for the National-led Government. Support for Labour (36%), the Greens (20%), Te Pāti Māori (4%), and New Zealand First (10.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A majority of women aged 50+ favour the National-led Government (53.5%) ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (43%). The combined support for the two major parties, Labour (30.5%) and National (34.5%) at a total of 65% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Among younger men, there is a clear advantage for the National-led governing coalition on 50.5%, almost 20% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 33.5%. Support for ACT (11.5%), and Opportunity (14.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A large majority of men aged 50+ support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (64%) compared to only 28% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. Support for National (45%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (104) is almost 40 points higher than for women (66.5)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was down 3 points to 85 in July 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for men was down 1 point to 104 in July, while for women the Government Confidence Rating was dropped 4.5 points to 66.5.
For men now 44.5% (unchanged) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 40.5% (up 1% point) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – Government Confidence of 104. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence increased 7 points to 119.5, and for younger men aged 18-49 decreased by 8 points to 90.5.
Among women a majority of 60% (up 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 26.5% (down 3% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 66.51. Government Confidence for younger women aged 18-49 was down 20.5 points to 50.5, while the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ increased 14 points to 84.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says neither Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government nor the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition are set to win a majority of seats at November’s election with Opportunity Party set to hold the balance of power:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) fell 2% to 49% in July and is now 8% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) on 41% (down 1%). Holding the balance of power is the Opportunity Party on 8% (up 1.5%).
“Support for National increased 1% to 32%, while support for National’s governing partners has softened in July. Support for New Zealand First was down 2% points to 8.5% – its lowest level of support so far this year, and support for ACT dropped 1% point to 8.5%.
“For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was unchanged on 25.5% – its equal lowest level of support since September 2024. The Greens were unchanged on 13.5%, while support for Te Pāti Māori is below the 5% threshold and dropped 1% to only 2%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in a hung Parliament with a plurality of 59 seats in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament for the National-led Government. This is well ahead of the projected seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 51 seats, but neither side of politics would have a Parliamentary majority.
“However, it leaves the centrist Opportunity Party set to enter Parliament for the first time by winning ten seats and holding the balance of power between the two sides of politics.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (64% cf. 28%). In addition, the National-led Government has majority support among men aged 18-49 (50.5% cf. 33.5%) and older women aged 50+ (53.5% cf. 43%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (60% cf. 28.5%).
“There are other worries for the Luxon-led Government with Roy Morgan Government Confidence falling 3 points to only 85 in July. Now a bare majority of 50.5% (up 1.5% points) of New Zealand electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 35.5% (down 1.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
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Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
