Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: In August National-led Government leads Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (49% vs. 41%), Opportunity Party support rises again to a record high of 9.5%
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for August 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) unchanged at 49%, maintaining a clear lead over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, unchanged at 41% and a record high 9.5%, up 1.5% support Opportunity.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National dropped 1% to 31%, support for ACT was up 2% to 10.5%, but support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 7.5% (the lowest level of support for New Zealand First so far this year).
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 1.5% to 24%, support for the Greens was up 2% to 15.5%, and support for Te Pāti Māori decreased 0.5% to 1.5%.
A further 10% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. Importantly, this includes 9.5% (up 1.5%) who support Opportunity and a further 0.5% (down 1.5%) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government set to win most seats but fall short of a majority with 59 seats
The survey results for August would lead to the National-led Government winning 59 seats (down nine seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 51 seats (down four seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 37 seats (down 12 seats from the election), NZ First would win nine seats (up one seats), and ACT would win 13 seats (up two seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 29 seats (down five seats), Greens support would mean 19 seats (up four seats) and Te Pāti Māori would win two seats (down four seats).
In addition, Opportunity Party would win its first seats in Parliament with its support of 9.5% enough to secure the party eleven seats, and crucially, the balance of power in the next Parliament.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 858 electors from July 27 – August 23, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 3.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating decreased 3.5 points to 81.5 in August
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating decreased 3.5 points to 81.5 in August. A majority of 53.5% (up 3% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 35% (down 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Men favour the National-led Government while women favour the Labour-led Opposition
A majority of men (58.5%) favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 27.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, a majority of 54% of women favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition ahead of the National-led Government on 39.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (64.5%) compared to 27% for the National-led Government. Support for Labour (36%), the Greens (25.5%), and Te Pāti Māori (3%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A majority of women aged 50+ favour the National-led Government (51.5%) ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (44%). The combined support for the two major parties, Labour (33%) and National (33%) at a total of 66% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Among younger men, there is a clear advantage for the National-led governing coalition on 49.5%, over 10% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 37%. Support for ACT (17%), and Opportunity (13%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A large majority of men aged 50+ support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (65%) compared to only 21% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. Support for National (45.5%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (92) is 20 points higher than for women (72)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was down 3.5 points to 81.5 in August 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for men was down 12 points to 92 in August, while for women the Government Confidence Rating increased 5.5 points to 72.
For men now 48% (up 7.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 40% (down 4.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – Government Confidence of 92. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence dropped 13.5 points to 106, and for younger men aged 18-49 decreased by 10 points to 80.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for Opportunity is up for a fourth straight month and the party is on track to secure the balance of power and play a crucial role in deciding whether the next Government will be a National-led or Labour-led Government:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) was unchanged at 49% in August, 8% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) on 41% (unchanged).
“Importantly, holding the balance of power for a second straight month is the Opportunity Party on 9.5% (up 1.5%). Opportunity Party Leader Qiulae Wong is standing in the Mount Albert electorate in inner urban Auckland, an electorate previously held by former Prime Ministers Jacinda Ardern (2017 – 2023) and Helen Clark (1981 – 1993 and 1999 – 2009).
“Amongst the ruling National-led Government, support for National was down 1% to 31%, and New Zealand First down 1% to 7.5% – its lowest level of support so far this year, but support for ACT increased 2% point to 10.5%.
“For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour dropped 1.5% to 24% – its lowest level of support since September 2024. The Greens were increased 2% to 15.5%, while support for Te Pāti Māori is below the 5% threshold and dropped 0.5% to only 1.5%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in a hung Parliament with a plurality of 59 seats in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament for the National-led Government. This is well ahead of the projected seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 50 seats, but neither side of politics would have a Parliamentary majority.
“However, it leaves the centrist Opportunity Party set to enter Parliament for the first time by winning eleven seats and holding the balance of power between the two sides of politics.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (65% cf. 21%). In addition, the National-led Government has majority support among women aged 50+ (51.5% cf. 44%) and clear lead of over 10% points among men aged 18-49 (49.5% cf. 37%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (64.5% cf. 27%).
“There are other worries for the Luxon-led Government with Roy Morgan Government Confidence falling 3.5 points to only 81.5 in August. Now an increasing majority of 53.5% (up 3% points) of New Zealand electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 35% (down 0.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
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Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
