Victorian State Voting Intention: Greens on track to retain Inner Melbourne electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond
There has been much speculation about whether the Greens will be able to hold their three Inner Melbourne electorates – Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond at this year’s Victorian State Election being held on Saturday November 28 in just over two months’ time.
Special Roy Morgan analysis of State voting trends in these seats shows the Greens State Vote is holding up at an average 41% in these three electorates, clearly ahead of the ALP on 35%.
Support for the Liberals is at just 14%, only 2% of electors support One Nation, and 1% support a Teal Independent. Another 7% support Other Parties or other Independents according to interviewing with 643 electors in the three electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond in the 12 months to August 2026.
It’s important to note there has been no sign of a swing to One Nation in these seats in the last few months.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.
In-depth detailed analysis such as by capital cities/country areas, age, gender, Victoria’s eight Upper House regions, occupation, and education is available to subscribers to the Morgan Poll.
To learn more contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
