Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: In September National-led Government increases lead over Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (52% vs. 41.5%)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for September 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) up 3% to 52%, increasing its clear lead over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, virtually unchanged at 41.5%, and 6.5% supporting Opportunity. This is the largest lead (10.5%) for the National-led Government for two years since September 2024.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National was unchanged at 31%, support for ACT was up 0.5% to 11%, and support for New Zealand First was up 2.5% to 10%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 0.5% to 23.5%, support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 16%, and support for Te Pāti Māori increased 0.5% to 2%.
A further 6.5% (down 3.5%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. Importantly, this is predominantly made up of support for Opportunity with less than 0.5% who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government set to win a narrow majority of 62 seats in 120 seat Parliament
The survey results for September would lead to the National-led Government winning 62 seats (down six seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 50 seats (down five seats).
For the National-led government, National’s support would win 37 seats (down 12 seats from the election), NZ First would win 12 seats (up four seats), and ACT would win 13 seats (up two seats).
For the Labour-led Opposition, Labour’s support would secure 28 seats (down six seats), Greens support would mean 19 seats (up four seats) and Te Pāti Māori would win three seats (down three seats).
In addition, Opportunity Party would win its first seats in Parliament, its support of 6.5% is enough to secure the party eight seats, but not enough to hold the balance of power in the next Parliament.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 859 electors from August 31 – September 27, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 1.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 4 points to 85.5 in September
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 4 points to 85.5 in September. A slim majority of 50.5% (down 3% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 36% (up 1% point) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Men favour the National-led Government while women favour the Labour-led Opposition
A large majority of men (60%) favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 30% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, a majority of 53% of women favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition ahead of the National-led Government on 44%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (62.5%) compared to 35% for the National-led Government. Support for the Greens (30.5%), and Te Pāti Māori (7%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
However, a majority of women aged 50+ favour the National-led Government (52%) ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (44.5%). Support for Labour (33%) and New Zealand First (12.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed, as is the combined support for the two major parties, Labour (33%) and National (32%), at a total of 65%.
Among younger men, the National-led coalition does not enjoy majority support. However, there is a clear advantage for the National-led coalition on 49.5%, over 10% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 37.5%. Support for Opportunity (13%) is significantly higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
71% of men aged 50+ support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition, only 22.5% support the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. Support for National (42%) and ACT (17.5%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Sept. 2026 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31 | 28 | 23.5 | 32 | 33.5 | 25 | 42 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 7.5 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 17.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 10 | 9 | 5.5 | 12.5 | 11 | 11 | 11.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 52 | 44 | 35 | 52 | 60 | 49.5 | 71 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 23.5 | 29 | 25 | 33 | 17.5 | 20.5 | 14.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 16 | 20.5 | 30.5 | 11 | 11.5 | 16 | 7 |
| Te Pāti Māori** | 3.1 | 2 | 3.5 | 7 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori | 41.6 | 41.5 | 53 | 62.5 | 44.5 | 30 | 37.5 | 22.5 |
| Opportunity (TOP) | 2.2 | 6.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 10 | 13 | 6.5 |
| Others | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 36 | 31 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 41 | 39 | 43.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 50.5 | 55.5 | 57 | 54.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 45 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 85.5 | 75.5 | 73.5 | 77 | 96.5 | 94.5 | 98.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 14 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 11.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (96.5) is over 20 points higher than for women (75.5)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 4 points to 85.5 in September 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for men was up 4.5 points to 96.5 in September, while for women the Government Confidence Rating increased 3.5 points to 75.5.
For men now 44.5% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 41% say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – Government Confidence of 96.5. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence is 98.5, and for younger men aged 18-49 it is 94.5.
Among women a majority of 55.5% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 31% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – 75.5. Government Confidence for younger women aged 18-49 was 73.5, while the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ decreased to 77.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for the National-led Government has surged to its highest since January, opening up the largest lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition for two years since September 2024 on the eve of this year’s election:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) increased 3% to 52% in September – the highest level of support for the Government since January. The National-led Government is now a large 10.5% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) on 41.5% (up 0.5%) – the Government’s largest lead for two years.
“Amongst the ruling National-led Government, support for National was unchanged at 31%, while support for New Zealand First increased 2.5% points to 10%, and support for ACT was up 0.5% points to 11%.
“For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 0.5% to 23.5% – its lowest level of support for two years since September 2024. The Greens were up 0.5% to 16%, while support for Te Pāti Māori is below the 5% threshold, but increased 0.5% to only 2%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in a small majority for the National-led Government with 62 seats in a 120-seat Parliament compared to only 50 seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition. The centrist Opportunity Party would enter Parliament for the first time by winning eight seats on the back of 6.5% support.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly from older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (71% cf. 22.5%). In addition, the National-led Government has majority support among women aged 50+ (52% cf. 44.5%) and clear lead of over 10% points among men aged 18-49 (49.5% cf. 37.5%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (62.5% cf. 35%).
“However, there are worries for the Luxon-led Government with Roy Morgan Government Confidence at only 85.5 in September – despite a small monthly increase of 4 points. A majority of 50.5% of New Zealand electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 36% say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
“The increasing lead for the National-led Government in September will be welcome for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his National colleagues who are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.
“The New Zealand Election is being held in a month’s time on Saturday November 7.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
