Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation and L-NP Coalition set to win key seats of Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham
A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of 283 electors in four key seats in Eastern Victoria – Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham – shows One Nation and the L-NP Coalition are set to win all four seats at next month’s Victorian State Election.
These four seats will be highly contested at next month’s Victorian Election. Bass, Hastings, and Pakenham are currently held by the ALP Government, and one, Morwell, is held by the Nationals. The Roy Morgan SMS Poll shows all four are set to change hands in November, and the ALP will lose all three it currently has.
One Nation are favoured in Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham, Liberals are favoured in Bass
Looking at the seats, the Liberal Party are expected win the seat of Bass, but importantly, One Nation are in prime position to win the seats of Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham.
Likely two-party preferred contest in each of the four seats:
Bass: Liberal vs. ALP (Liberal ahead)
Hastings: One Nation vs. Liberal (One Nation ahead)
Morwell: One Nation vs. ALP (One Nation ahead)
Pakenham: One Nation vs. ALP (One Nation ahead)
In the three electorates of Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham, One Nation is attracting an average of 39% primary support, well ahead of the Coalition (24%), ALP (20%), and the Greens (8%). A further 9% of electors in these seats support Other parties and Independents.
Combined primary voting intention (Hastings, Morwell & Pakenham)
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Preferences will be the key to determine the results in many Victorian Electorates at the Election
Because of the importance of preferences in determining which party will win seats at this year’s Victorian Election a key question asked of electors in these seats was: “Which party will you NEVER vote for” – 44% of electors would never vote for the ALP, ahead of One Nation on 41%, and the Greens on 37%.
Only 12% of electors would NEVER vote for the L-NP Coalition – which will prove crucial in closely contested seats which come down to preferences.
Parties that electors would NEVER vote for (Bass, Hastings, Morwell & Pakenham)
Analysis of voting preferences (and anti-preferences) by voting intention shows the complexity
The analysis of voting preferences (and anti-preferences) by voting intention shows 40% of L-NP Coalition supporters in these four seats say they would NEVER vote for One Nation. However, in the reverse, only 10% of One Nation supporters say they would NEVER vote for the L-NP Coalition.
A large majority of 64% of people voting for Other Parties and Independents say they would NEVER vote for One Nation, compared to 32% who say they would NEVER vote for the ALP, and 29% who say they would NEVER vote for the L-NP Coalition.
The complexity of the primary voting situation in Victoria is why predicting ‘two-party preferred results’ is impossible on a state-wide level, and the only way to do so is to conduct seat-by-seat analysis.
There was never a two-party preferred comparison released for this year’s South Australian Election because of this same complicated flow of preferences.
The importance of preferences at the Victorian Election is underlined by recent election results
The contest between the parties in outer suburban and regional areas – in which One Nation is performing strongly – will be key to determining the result of next month’s Victorian Election and whether there will be a Majority or Minority Government.
The flow of preferences in these electorates will be key to determining which parties will win these seats, as we saw at the Melbourne City Council Election two years ago.
In many electorates the party finishing third is crucial to determining which of the top two parties go on to win the seat. The strong performance of One Nation in key regional seats like Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham suggests the party can win many seats in regional and rural areas even if their state-wide primary vote falls below that of the Coalition and ALP.
Key concerns for voters in these four electorates (Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham)
Electors were asked: “What are your major concerns today?”
The responses are dominated by five major concerns:
- 25% Cost of living / affordability (prices, fuel, groceries, utilities, interest rates, financial pressure);
- 23% Government debt, spending, waste, mismanagement, transparency & corruption);
- 20% Crime, law & order, public safety, youth crime;
- 12% Roads, potholes & infrastructure;
- 7% Housing affordability & housing shortage;
This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll into four key Eastern Victoria Region electorates (Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham) was conducted with 283 electors interviewed from October 21-26, 2026.
Further details are available to subscribers to the Morgan Poll. To learn more contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
