Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: National-led Government ahead of Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (47.5% vs. 44%); but Opportunity Party (8%) set to hold the ‘balance of power’ and determine next PM
The Final Pre-Election Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for October shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) losing support, down 4.5% to 47.5% in the final days of the campaign, but still ahead of the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, up 2.5% to 44% - with the National-led Government now leading by only 3.5%.
The big winner is Opportunity Party with support improving 1.5% to 8% and set to be in the key ‘balance of power’ position after this week’s New Zealand Election.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National dropped 4.5% to 26.5%, while support for ACT was unchanged at 11%, and support for New Zealand First was unchanged at 10%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was increased 4% to 27.5%, support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 15.5%, and support for Te Pāti Māori decreased 1% to 1%. Though Te Pāti Māori’s strategy of targeting electorate seats for wins is likely to lead to an overhang of seats.
A further 4% (down 1%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. Importantly, this is predominantly made up of support for Opportunity with only 0.5% who support other minor parties including Vision NZ, Te Tai Tokerau Party, Conservative Party NZ and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government set to win 57 seats, Labour-led Opposition set to win 55 seats, and Opportunity Party set to win 10 seats in a 122-seat Parliament – no clear majority
The survey results for October would lead to the National-led Government winning 57 seats (down 11 seats from the last election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 55 seats (unchanged).
For the National led government, National’s support would win 32 seats (down 17 seats from the last election), NZ First would win 12 seats (up four seats), and ACT would win 13 seats (up two seats).
For the Labour-led Opposition, Labour’s support would secure 33 seats (down one seat), Greens support would mean 19 seats (up four seats) and Te Pāti Māori would win three seats (down three seats).
In addition, Opportunity Party would win its first seats in Parliament, its support of 8% is enough to secure 10 seats and the balance of power in the post-election negotiations. On these results Opportunity could join a four-party coalition of National-ACT-NZ-First with as many as 67 seats in a 122-seat Parliament, or potentially a three-party coalition with Labour-Greens and 62 seats in a 122-seat Parliament. The addition of Te Pāti Māori would lead to a larger majority, but a more unwieldy four-party coalition.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 859 electors from September 28 – October 25, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 1% point) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating decreased 3 points to 82.5 in October
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating decreased 3 points to 82.5 in October. A majority of 55% (up 4.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 37.5% (up 1.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Men favour the National-led Government while women favour the Labour-led Opposition
A large majority of men (52.5%) favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 37% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, a majority of 51% of women favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition ahead of the National-led Government on 42%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (54%) compared to 40% for the National-led Government. Support for the Greens (25.5%), and Te Pāti Māori (2%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A narrow plurality of women aged 50+ favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (48%) just ahead of the National-led Government (44%). Support for Labour (36%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed, as is the combined support for the two major parties, Labour (36%) and National (30%), at a total of 66%.
Among younger men, an even narrower plurality support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (45.5%) just ahead of the National-led governing coalition on 42.5%. Support for Opportunity (10.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
62% of men aged 50+ support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition, only 29% support the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. Support for National (31%), ACT (18%), and New Zealand First (13%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Oct. 2026 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 26.5 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 24 | 17 | 31 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 5.5 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 18 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 8.5 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 47.5 | 42 | 40 | 44 | 52.5 | 42.5 | 62 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 27.5 | 32 | 26.5 | 36 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 22.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 15.5 | 18 | 25.5 | 11.5 | 13 | 21 | 5.5 |
| Te Pāti Māori** | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | - | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori | 41.6 | 44 | 51 | 54 | 48 | 37 | 45.5 | 29 |
| Opportunity (TOP) | 2.2 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 9 |
| Others | 3.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 37.5 | 34 | 32 | 36 | 41 | 40 | 42.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 55 | 58 | 58.5 | 57 | 52 | 56 | 47.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 82.5 | 76 | 73.5 | 79 | 89 | 84 | 95 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 7.5 | 8 | 9.5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (89) is over 10 points higher than for women (76)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 3 points to 82.5 in October 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for men was down 7.5 points to 89 in October, while for women the Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 76.
For men now 52% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 41% say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – Government Confidence of 89. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence is 95, and for younger men aged 18-49 it is 84.
Among women a majority of 58% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 34% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – 76. Government Confidence for younger women aged 18-49 was 73.5, while the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ was at 79.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the final pre-election Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows neither the National-led Government (47.5%) nor the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (44%) have done enough to secure a majority of seats at the election:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) dived 4.5% to 47.5% in October – not enough to secure a majority of seats at this week’s election. However, the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori), up 2.5% to 44%, is also well short of a majority of support.
“If these results are repeated at the election the National-led Government would likely win 57 seats (National: 32, ACT: 13 and New Zealand First: 12) just ahead of the 55 seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour: 33, Greens: 19, Te Pāti Māori: 3).
“Such a close result brings the centrist Opportunity Party into the picture. Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows Opportunity with 8% support – up 1.5% from a month ago – and set to enter Parliament for the first time by winning an election deciding 10 seats.
“Amongst the ruling National-led Government, support for National dropped 4.5% to 26.5% – driving the decline for the government, while support for ACT was unchanged at 11%, and support for New Zealand First was unchanged at 10%.
“The fall in support for National has coincided with a rising majority of New Zealanders – now 55% (up 4.5% points) saying the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ – a clear indicator of the trouble facing the National-led Government seeking re-election. Only 37.5% of New Zealanders say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
“For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 4% to 27.5% to edge just in front of National – which could be crucial in post-election negotiations. Support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 15.5%, while support for Te Pāti Māori was down 1% to just 1%.
“However, the national level of support for Te Pāti Māori isn’t so important with the party pursuing a policy of targeting electorate wins rather than more widespread support – making an overhang of seats in the Parliament very likely post-election.
“Interestingly, support for the National-led Government is heavily concentrated among older men aged 50+ with the trio of National-ACT-NZ First on 62% more than double the support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori) on just 29%.
“However, the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition leads the National-led Government among the three other gender and age groups. For women aged 50+ (48% cf. 44%), for men aged 18-49 (45.5% cf. 42.5%) and the largest lead among women aged 18-49 (54% cf. 40%).
“These results suggest Opportunity Party will decide who the next Government will be and whether National’s leader Christopher Luxon remains Prime Minister, or whether Labour Leader Chris Hipkins will have a second stint as Prime Minister after holding the role in 2023.
“A potential Labour-Greens-TOP coalition would hold 62 seats in a 122-seat Parliament – a slim majority of seats, or a potential four-way National-ACT-NZ First-TOP coalition would hold a more commanding 67 seats in a 122-seat Parliament. The choice TOP makes could well be determined by the level of overhang in the Parliament, and which combination of parties can command a majority of seats in a very finely balanced Parliament.
“The New Zealand Election is being this weekend on Saturday November 7.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
