Roy Morgan Research
July 11, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.8pts to 73.3 despite the RBA holding interest rates unchanged

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9270
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 0.8pts to 73.3 this week. The index has now spent nineteen straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least nineteen weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.

Consumer Confidence is now 8.3pts below the same week a year ago, July 4-10, 2022 (81.6) and 5.3pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.6. Looking around the States, Consumer Confidence was unchanged in New South Wales, but down in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA.

Driving the index down this week were negative moves for whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items after the End of Financial Year/Mid-Year sales ended while there were small improvements for sentiment in regards to personal finances following the RBA leaving rates unchanged.

Current financial conditions

  • Now only 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53% (down 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, just over a quarter of Australians, 27% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while almost two-fifths, 39% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over two-fifths, 43% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 10% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (the equal lowest figure for this indicator for over 30 years since August 1989) compared to just over a fifth, 22% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Sentiment regarding to buying intentions is slightly better this week with 17% (down 4ppts) of Australians, who now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a clear majority of 56% (up 4ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell last week despite the RBA leaving the cash rate unchanged, though many subcategories of confidence lifted. There were small gains in ‘current’ and ‘future financial conditions’ and ‘future economic conditions’ but that was more than offset by a sharp decline in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex. Confidence dropped 3.4pts for those paying off their own homes and fell to its lowest level on record for this cohort.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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