Roy Morgan Research
August 01, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 3.2pts to 78.4 – biggest two week jump since April 2020 after inflation softens

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9285

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 3.2pts to 78.4 this week – to its highest for three months since late April. However, the index has now spent an equal record twenty-two straight weeks below the mark of 80 – equalling the all-time record of five months (twenty-two weeks) from September 1990 – January 1991 when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.

Consumer Confidence is now 5.7pts below the same week a year ago, July 25-31, 2022 (84.1) and almost level, 0.1pts above the 2023 weekly average of 78.3. Looking around the States, Consumer Confidence was up in NSW, Victoria and SA, but down slightly in Queensland and WA.

Over the last two weeks Consumer Confidence has jumped 5.8pts (+8.0%) to 78.4, the biggest two week increase in points for over two years since April 2021 (+6.3pts /+5.8%) and the biggest two week increase in percentage terms since the early days of the pandemic in April 2020 (+6.8pts/+8.7%).

Driving the index up this week were increases in positive sentiment in regards to personal finances over the next year and the Australian economy’s performance over the next year as well as improving sentiment in terms of now being a ‘good time to buy a major household item’.

Current financial conditions

  • Now a fifth of Australians, 20% (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, a third of Australians, 33% (up 3ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly six months since February 2023) while just over a third, 34% (down 2ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to almost two-fifths, 38% (down 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has improved slightly this week although only 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to a fifth, 20% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Sentiment regarding to buying intentions is has improved this week with 21% (up 3ppts) of Australians, who now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a clear majority of 54% (down 3ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence increased last week, to its highest since the last week of April 2023. The increase in confidence was driven by major gains in the ‘future financial conditions’ ahead of an expected pause from the RBA. Still, confidence remains low as households grapple with ongoing high inflation and restrictive interest rates, which is also reflected in falling retail sales. Among the housing cohorts, confidence jumped across all groups as it rose 3.1pts for outright homeowners, 4.5pts for those paying off their homes and 3.4pts for those renting.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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