Roy Morgan Research
July 09, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.3pts to 79.0 after End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales finish up; buying sentiment indicator has largest weekly drop so far this year

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9520

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.3pts to 79.0 this week after the End of Financial Year (EOFY) Sales period finished at the end of June after the buying sentiment indicator suffered its biggest weekly decline so far this year – down a net 9% points from a week ago.

Looking longer-term, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 75 straight weeks below the mark of 85 and is a large 5.7 points above the same week a year ago, July 3-9, 2023 (73.3), but is now 2.8 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.8.

A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the index was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia but virtually unchanged in Queensland.

Views on personal finances compared to a year ago were slightly worse off this week while views on the Australian economy’s performance going forward were virtually unchanged.

Current financial conditions

  • Now under a fifth of Australians, 19% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53% (up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • However, views on personal finances over the next year were virtually unchanged this week, with under a third of Australians, 31% (unchanged) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while another 35% (down 1ppt) are expecting to be ‘worse off’.

Short-term economic confidence

  • In addition, only 8% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 36% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.

Medium-term economic confidence

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just over a fifth, 21% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • There was a big dip to net buying intentions this week after the End of Financial Year (EOFY) Sales finished up with just over a fifth, 21% (down 4ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the biggest drop for this indicator so far this year) while a majority of 51% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items (the largest increase for this indicator so far this year).
  • The net result was a movement of 9ppts towards ‘bad time to buy’, the biggest net move down for this indicator for nearly 18 months since early February 2023 after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates for the first time in 2023.

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence dropped to its second lowest level for the year. The decline was driven by a 9.0pt fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex, following the conclusion of end-of-financial year sales. This was the largest weekly fall in the subindex since February 2023. There was also a 4.7pt drop in ‘current financial conditions’.

Across the housing cohorts, confidence declined most for those paying off a mortgage, perhaps due to talk about the possibility of an RBA rate hike in August. Confidence also fell for households that own their homes outright, while it was broadly stable for renters.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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