In November, support for One Nation increased to its highest since 1998; ALP maintains two-party preferred lead

In November, primary support for One Nation was up 2% to 14% - its highest level of support for over 27 years since July 1998 while support for the ALP was down 2% to 33%. Support for the Coalition was unchanged on 27%, the Greens down 0.5% to 12.5%, and support for Independents/ Other Parties up 0.5% to 13.5% according to the latest Roy Morgan survey conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 5,248 electors interviewed over the four weeks from October 20 – November 16, 2025.

On a State-by-State basis support for One Nation increased in the four largest States of New South Wales (up 2.5% to 14.5%), Victoria (up 1.5% to 10.5%), Queensland (up 3% to 18%), and Western Australia (up 5% to 16.5%). However, support was down in the smaller States of South Australia (down 3.5% to 11.5%) and Tasmania (down 1% to 9%).

This increasing support for One Nation should come as no surprise. Readers will recall Roy Morgan has been monitoring the rise of disaffected, disengaged Australians (Over 1 Million Disenfranchised Australians Feel Left Behind and Disconnected from Government and A Dangerous Convergence: Disaffection and the rise of ‘Sovereign Citizens’), and there were 1.15 million and that these people were 2.5 times more likely to support One Nation.

Roy Morgan research shows concentrations of disaffected Australians in rural Australia and outer suburban areas. Roy Morgan has been tracking this hidden underbelly for years. It is growing. It is angry. And if it is ignored, it will shape our politics and destabilise our democracy.

Most interviewing for this Roy Morgan survey was conducted before the Liberal Party’s decision to ditch their ‘net zero’ commitment on Thursday November 13 and was conducted during a period in which there was a high profile debate within the Liberal Party about their position on their climate policies.

ALP maintains large election-winning two-party preferred lead in November: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP maintained its lead with the ALP on 56.5% (down 0.5% from October 2025) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 43.5% (up 0.5%).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority.

The Albanese Government’s two-party preferred lead in November represents a return to the lead held during August 2025 and is above the 2025 Federal Election result in early May: ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%.

ALP leads the L-NP Coalition in all six States for a second straight month

The ALP leads the L-NP Coalition on two-party preferred terms in all six States in November for a second straight month. There were mixed results compared to a month ago with a swing to the ALP in Queensland, swings to the L-NP Coalition in New South Wales, Western Australia and Tasmania, and unchanged results in Victoria and South Australia.

The ALP holds its largest two-party preferred leads in Tasmania: ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%, South Australia: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5% and Victoria: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%.

The closest result is again in Queensland with the ALP (51%) holding a narrow two-party preferred lead over the LNP (49%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Primary vote and two-party preferred vote in every State & Territory: November 2025

NSW:                Primary support:ALP (33.5%), L-NP (28.5%), One Nation (14.5%, up 2.5%), Greens (10.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (13%). Two-party preferred: ALP 55.5% (down 2% since October) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 2%).

Victoria:            Primary support ALP (33.5%), L-NP (27.5%), One Nation (10.5%, up 1.5%), Greens (16%), Independents/ Other Parties (12.5%). Two-party preferred: ALP 59.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 40.5% (unchanged).

Queensland:     Primary support: ALP (28%), LNP (27%), One Nation (18%, up 3%), Greens (12%), Independents/ Other Parties (15%). Two-party preferred: ALP 51% (up 0.5%) cf. L-NP 49% (down 0.5%).

WA:                   Primary support: ALP (32.5%), L-NP (27.5%), One Nation (16.5%, up 5%), Greens (11%), Independents/ Other Parties (12.5%). Two-party preferred: ALP 53% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 47% (up 0.5%).

SA:                   Primary support: ALP (37.5%), L-NP (26%), One Nation (11.5%, down 3.5%), Greens (15%), Independents/ Other Parties (10%). Two-party preferred: ALP 59.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 40.5% (unchanged).

Tasmania:         Primary support: ALP (35.5%), L-NP (26.5%), One Nation (9%, down 1%), Greens (11%), Independents/ Other Parties (18%). Two-party preferred: ALP 65.5% (down 2.5%) cf. L-NP 34.5% (up 2.5%).

ALP holds large two-party preferred lead among women at 60% in November 2025

Women:           Primary support: ALP (34%), L-NP (26%), One Nation (11.5%, up 2.5%), Greens (15%), Independents/ Other Parties (13.5%). Two-party preferred: ALP 60% (down 0.5% since October) cf. L-NP 40% (up 0.5%).

Men:                 Primary support: ALP (31.5%), L-NP (28.5%), One Nation (16.5%, up 1.5%), Greens (10%), Independents/ Other Parties (13.5%). Two-party preferred: ALP 53% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 47% (up 0.5%).

Analysis by age shows the ALP holding a large lead for Australians aged under 50 in October 2025

In November the ALP has maintained a strong two-party preferred lead for all Australians aged under 50 including over two-thirds of 18-34 years old (ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%) and three-fifths of 35-49 year olds (ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%).

However, Australians aged 50+ are evenly split between the major parties – although there is a clear dividing line between the older age groups. The ALP leads for those aged 50-64: ALP 54% (up 3% cf. L-NP 46% (down 3%), while the L-NP leads among those aged 65+: L-NP 54% (up 2%) cf. ALP 46% (down 2%).

18-34:               Primary support: ALP (31.5%), L-NP (19.5%), One Nation (8%, up 1%), Greens (25%), Independents/ Other Parties (16%). Two-party preferred: ALP 67% (down 2% since October) cf. L-NP 33% (up 2%).

35-49:               Primary support: ALP (32%), L-NP (24%), One Nation (14%, up 1.5%), Greens (14.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (15.5%). Two-party preferred: ALP 60% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 40% (up 0.5%).

50-64:               Primary support: ALP (33.5%), L-NP (26%), One Nation (18.5%, up 2.5%), Greens (7.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (14.5%). Two-party preferred: ALP 54% (up 3%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 3%).

65+:                  Primary support: ALP (34%), L-NP (39%), One Nation (15%, up 3%), Greens (3.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (8.5%). Two-party preferred: L-NP 54% (up 2%) cf. ALP 46% (down 2%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 2pts to 82 November

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at 82 in November (up 2 points from October 2025). A majority of 51.5% (down 1.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 33.5% (up 0.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 5,248 Australian electors from October 20 – November 16, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey for the month of November are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election held in early May the two-party preferred result is significantly closer than the respondent allocated preferences – which favours the ALP more heavily.

Allocating the preference flows based on how Australians voted at the Federal Election for the month of November shows the ALP on 55% (down 2% from a month ago) leading the L-NP Coalition on 45% (up 2%). This result is in line with the Federal Election result (ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Roy Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.