ALP two-party lead is smallest since the Federal Election following the ‘Bondi Shooting’: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

In the week of January 5-11, 2026, the first Roy Morgan Poll since the ‘Bondi Shooting’, Coalition support is at 30.5% (up 3% since the week of December 8-14, 2025) just ahead of the ALP on 30% (down 0.5%), One Nation is on 15% (down 2%), the Greens are on 13.5% (up 0.5%), and Independents/ Other Parties are at 11% (down 1%). The latest Roy Morgan survey was conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,676 electors in the week of January 5-11, 2026.

In addition, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 7 points after the ‘Bondi Shooting’ in mid-December to 74 in early January. Only 19.5% (down 13.5%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ while 45.5% (down 6.5%) say the country is ‘‘going in the wrong direction’.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is now on 52% (down 2.5% since the week of December 8-14, 2025) ahead of the Coalition on 48% (up 2.5%).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a decreased majority.

The Albanese Government’s two-party preferred lead in early January is the closest result between the two major parties since the Federal Election result in May 2025: ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%, and the closest the Coalition has been for almost a year.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in December 2025 and Early January 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates: December 2025: November 17 – December 14, 2025; (Finishing in) Early December 2025: November 17 – December 7; 2025, Mid-December 2025: December 8-14, 2025, Early January 2026: January 5-11, 2026.

ALP leads the Coalition in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania on a two-party preferred basis but the Coalition leads in Queensland and WA; the parties are even in South Australia

The ALP leads the Coalition on two-party preferred terms in the two largest States of New South Wales (ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%) and Victoria (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%).

However, the Coalition now leads strongly in the next two largest States – Queensland (LNP 54% cf. ALP 46%), and Western Australia (L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%).

Two-party preferred vote in every State & Territory: Early January 2026

NSW:                ALP 54.5% (down 2.5% since mid-December) cf. L-NP 45.5% (up 2.5%).

Victoria:           ALP 55% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 45% (up 1.5%).

Queensland:     LNP 54% (up 3.5%) cf. ALP 46% (down 3.5%).

WA:                  L-NP 54.5% (up 5%) cf. ALP 45.5% (down 5%).

SA:                   ALP 50% (down 6.5%) cf. L-NP 50% (up 6.5%).

Tasmania:        ALP 56% (down 11%) cf. L-NP 44% (up 11%).

ALP holds two-party preferred lead amongst women, Coalition leads amongst men: Early January 2026

The Coalition has taken the two-party preferred lead amongst men (L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%) for the first time since the Election. Women continue to heavily favour the Government (ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%).

Women:           ALP 57.5% (down 1% since mid-December) cf. L-NP 39.5% (up 1%).

Men:                 L-NP 53.5% (up 6%) cf. ALP 46.5% (down 6%).

Analysis by age shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis for Australians aged under 35, while the Coalition leads for people aged 35-49, 50-64 and 65+

In early January 2026 the ALP’s overall two-party preferred lead is built entirely on its large lead amongst electors aged 18-34 (ALP: 67% cf. L-NP 33%).

The Coalition has taken a lead in all three of the oldest age groups – including the crucial age group of those aged 35-49 (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%) for the first time since last year’s Federal Election

18-34:               ALP 67% (down 2.5% since mid-December) cf. L-NP 33% (up 2.5%).

35-49:               L-NP 51.5% (up 10%) cf. ALP 48.5% (down 10%).

50-64:               L-NP 51.5% (up 1%) cf. ALP 48.5% (down 1%).

65+:                  L-NP 55.5% (up 1%) cf. ALP 44.5% (down 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunges 7pts after Bondi Shooting in mid-December

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 7pts to 74 in early January. A large plurality of 45.5% (down 6.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 19.5% (down 13.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,676 Australian electors from January 5-11, 2026. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election held in early May the two-party preferred result is identical to the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 52% (down 3% from mid-December) leading the L-NP Coalition on 48% (up 3%). This is the closest result between the two major parties since the 2025 Federal Election.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.