ALP support drops in mid-December as ‘expenses scandal’ impacts several senior ministers

In the week of December 8-14, primary support for the ALP was at 30.5% (down 2.5% from the first three weeks of December), the Coalition was at 27.5% (up 1.5%), One Nation was at 17% (up 2%), the Greens were at 13% (down 0.5%), and Independents/ Other Parties were at 12% (down 0.5%) according to the latest Roy Morgan survey conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,574 electors interviewed in the week of December 8-14, 2025.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is now on 54.5% (down 1.5% from early December) ahead of the Coalition on 45.5% (up 1.5% from early December).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a decreased majority.

The Albanese Government’s two-party preferred lead in mid-December is the closest result between the two major parties since the Federal Election result in May 2025: ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%.

All interviewing for this Roy Morgan survey from December 8-14, 2025, was conducted before the shocking terrorist attack on Bondi Beach early on Sunday evening.

Roy Morgan Poll November and December 2025: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates: November 2025: October 20 – November 16, 2025, December 2025: November 17 – December 14, 2025, Early December: November 17 – December 7, 2025, Late December: December 8-14, 2025.

One Nation support continues to increase, and hits record high of 17% in mid-December

Support for One Nation has more than doubled since July 2025 (7%) and has increased for five months in a row to a new record high of 17% to close out 2025 beating a previous record of 14.5% set in 1998.

Former National Party Leader and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce resigned from the National Party on November 27 and officially joined One Nation less than two weeks later on December 8. This increasing support for One Nation should come as no surprise.

Readers will recall Roy Morgan has been monitoring the rise of disaffected, disengaged Australians (Over 1 Million Disenfranchised Australians Feel Left Behind and Disconnected from Government and A Dangerous Convergence: Disaffection and the rise of ‘Sovereign Citizens’), and there were 1.15 million and that these people were 2.5 times more likely to support One Nation.

Roy Morgan research shows concentrations of disaffected Australians in rural Australia and outer suburban areas. Roy Morgan has been tracking this hidden underbelly for years. It is growing. It is angry. And if it is ignored, it will shape our politics and destabilise our democracy.

Detailed Demographic Results for States, Gender & Age based on four weeks of December interviewing:

Albanese Government support down on two-party preferred basis in December after expenses scandal exposes several high-profile MPs to scrutiny: ALP 55.5% (down 1%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 1%)

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP’s two-party preferred lead was significantly cut in December with the ALP on 55.5% (down 1% from November 2025) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 44.5% (up 1%).

As the Roy Morgan survey results show, this support was lost during the last week of interviewing.

ALP leads the L-NP Coalition in five States in December, LNP regains the lead in Queensland

The ALP leads the L-NP Coalition on two-party preferred terms in five States with large leads in New South Wales: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%, Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. 43.5%, South Australia: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% and the largest lead of all in Tasmania: ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%.

There are close results in the two other States with the ALP narrowly ahead in Western Australia: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%, and the LNP narrowly ahead in Queensland: LNP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

Primary vote and two-party preferred vote in every State & Territory: December 2025 (Four weeks)

NSW:                Primary support:ALP (33.5%), L-NP (25.5%), One Nation (17.5%, up 3%), Greens (11.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (12%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 57% (up 1.5%) cf. L-NP 43% (down 1.5%).

Victoria:           Primary support:ALP (32.5%), L-NP (28.5%), One Nation (10%, down 0.5%), Greens (15.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (13.5%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 56.5% (down 3%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (up 3%).

Queensland:     Primary support: ALP (28%), LNP (27%), One Nation (22%, up 4%),
Greens (12.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (10.5%).

Two-party preferred: LNP 50.5% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 1.5%).

WA:                   Primary support: ALP (30%), L-NP (24%), One Nation (17.5%, up 1%),
Greens (15.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (13%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 50.5% (down 2.5%) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 2.5%).

SA:                   Primary support: ALP (35.5%), L-NP (29%), One Nation (13.5%, up 2%), Greens (12.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (9.5%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 56.5% (down 3%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (up 3%).

Tasmania:        Primary support: ALP (38.5%), L-NP (19%), One Nation (12%, up 3%),
Greens (12%), Independents/ Other Parties (18.5%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 67% (up 1.5%) cf. L-NP 33% (down 1.5%).

ALP holds large two-party preferred lead among women at 58.5% in December 2025 (Four weeks)

Women:           Primary support: ALP (31.5%), L-NP (26%), One Nation (13%, up 1.5%), Greens (17.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (12%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 58.5% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 41.5% (up 1.5%).

Men:                 Primary support: ALP (32.5%), L-NP (27.5%), One Nation (18%, up 1.5%), Greens (9%), Independents/ Other Parties (13%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 52.5% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (up 0.5%).

Analysis by age shows ALP leading people under 50, L-NP leading for 50+ in December 2025 (Four weeks)

In December the ALP has maintained a strong two-party preferred lead for all Australians aged under 50 including over two-thirds of 18-34 years old (ALP 69.5% cf. L-NP 30.5%) and almost three-fifths of 35-49 year olds (ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%).

However, the L-NP now leads for both older age groups for Australians aged 50+. For those aged 50-64, the L-NP has now gained a lead: L-NP 50.5% (up 4.5%) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 4.5%) and a larger lead amongst those aged 65+: L-NP 54.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 45.5% (down 0.5%).

18-34:               Primary support: ALP (32.5%), L-NP (17%), One Nation (10%, up 2%),
Greens (26.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (14%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 69.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 30.5% (down 2.5%).

35-49:               Primary support: ALP (32.5%), L-NP (23.5%), One Nation (15.5%, up 1.5%), Greens (15%), Independents/ Other Parties (13.5%).

Two-party preferred: ALP 58.5% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 41.5% (up 1.5%).

50-64:               Primary support: ALP (30.5%), L-NP (29%), One Nation (20.5%, up 2%), Greens (8%), Independents/ Other Parties (12%).

Two-party preferred: L-NP 50.5% (up 4.5%) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 4.5%).

65+:                  Primary support: ALP (33%), L-NP (37%), One Nation (16%, up 1%), Greens (4.5%), Independents/ Other Parties (9.5%).

Two-party preferred: L-NP 54.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 45.5% (down 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down 1pt to 81 in December

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at 81 in December (down 1 point from November 2025). A majority of 52% (up 0.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 33% (down 0.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 4,862 Australian electors from November 17 – December 14, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 1%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey for the month of December are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election held in early May the two-party preferred result is marginally closer than the respondent allocated preferences – which favours the ALP more heavily.

Allocating the preference flows based on how Australians voted at the Federal Election for the month of December shows the ALP on 55% (unchanged from a month ago) leading the L-NP Coalition on 45% (unchanged). This result is in line with the Federal Election result (ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Roy Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.