New Zealand: In August, support for Labour surges to highest since the 2023 New Zealand Election
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for August 2025 shows a surge in support for the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition now on 50% - up 4% points from a month ago.
In contrast, support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) dropped 4.5% points to only 46.5% - its lowest level of support this year. Within the National-led Government support for National was down 2% points to 29%, support for ACT was unchanged at 10.5% and support for NZ First dropped 2.5% points to 7%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 3% points to 34% - the highest level of support for any party for a year since September 2024. Support for the Greens was up 2% points to 13.5%, but support for the Maori Party dropped 1% point to 2.5%.
A further 3.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 3% (up 2% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 0.5% (down 1.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party would win a slim majority of 62 seats in a 120 seat Parliament
The survey results for August would lead to 62 seats (up seven seats from the election) being won by the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition compared to 58 seats (down 10 seats) for the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition.
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 42 seats (up eight seats from the election), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and the Maori Party would win three seats (down three seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 36 seats (down 13 seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 13 seats (up two seats) and NZ First would win nine seats (up one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 873 electors from July 28 – August 24, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2% (down 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 83.5 in August
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 83.5 in August. Now a majority of 53.5% (unchanged) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 37% (unchanged) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand dropped 2.7pts to 92.0 in August but is still 4 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 88 on August 25-31, 2025.
Age gap persists with younger women and men favouring the Labour/ Greens/ Māori Opposition while older women and men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition
A clear age gap has persisted alongside the ‘gender split’ in August. The long-standing ‘gender gap’ shows a majority of 58.5% of women favouring the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party compared to 39.5% favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition Government. This gender gap is entirely driven entirely by younger women aged 18-49.
An overwhelming majority of younger women support the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party on 76.5%, well over triple the support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on only 20%. Support for all three opposition parties including Labour (49.5%), the Greens (21.5%) and the Māori Party (5.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are clearly in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 60.5% well ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party on 39%. The combined support for the two major parties, National (41.5%) and Labour (33%) at a total of 74.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast a majority of 54% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 41% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. This gender gap is driven by men over 50.
A large majority of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (66.5%) compared to only 31% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party – a gap of 35.5% points. Support for ACT (16.5%) is higher among this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
However, younger men aged 18-49 favour the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party on 51% compared to 41.5% that support the National-led governing coalition.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | August 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 29 | 26.5 | 13 | 41.5 | 31.5 | 20.5 | 43 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 10.5 | 5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 16 | 15.5 | 16.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 7 | 8 | 4.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 7 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 46.5 | 39.5 | 20 | 60.5 | 54 | 41.5 | 66.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 34 | 41.5 | 49.5 | 33 | 26.5 | 29.5 | 23 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 21.5 | 4.5 | 13 | 20 | 6 |
| Māori Party | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party | 41.6 | 50 | 58.5 | 76.5 | 39 | 41 | 51 | 31 |
| Others | 5.6 | 3.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 5 | 7.5 | 2.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 37 | 31.5 | 29 | 34 | 43 | 36 | 51 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 53.5 | 55.5 | 62 | 48 | 51 | 59.5 | 41 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 83.5 | 76 | 67 | 86 | 92 | 76.5 | 110 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 9.5 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 4.5 | 8 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is unchanged in August despite wild swings in political support
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 83.5 in August 2025.
A bare majority of men, 51% (up 1% point) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 43% (up 4.5% points) that say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 92 (up 3.5pts). Government Confidence for men moved in different directions in August depending on age with Government Confidence for younger men aged 18-49 dropping 8pts to 76.5, but for older men aged 50+ Government Confidence surged by 17pts to 110.
Among women now a majority of 55.5% (down 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 31.5% (down 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 76 (down 2.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped 2 points to 67 and clearly the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ also dropped by 2 points to 86.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the surge in support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition has been concentrated among younger women aged 18-49 with an increase of 13% points on a month ago to a super-majority of 76.5%:
A bare majority of men, 51% (up 1% point) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 43% (up 4.5% points) that say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 92 (up 3.5pts). Government Confidence for men moved in different directions in August depending on age with Government Confidence for younger men aged 18-49 dropping 8pts to 76.5, but for older men aged 50+ Government Confidence surged by 17pts to 110.
Among women now a majority of 55.5% (down 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 31.5% (down 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 76 (down 2.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped 2 points to 67 and clearly the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ also dropped by 2 points to 86.
“Support for the Parliamentary Opposition (Labour Party, Greens, Maori Party) has increased 4% points to 50% in August – the highest level of support for the opposition so far this year and now clearly ahead of the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) on 46.5% (down 4.5% points) – and a gap of 3.5% in favour of the Opposition.
“Support for Labour increased 3% points to 34% – the highest level of support for the party since August 2022 – when former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern still led the party. Support for the Greens was up 2% points to 13.5% and the Maori Party dropped 1% point to 2.5%.
“There is now a clear age split emerging with the Labour-led Opposition now favoured by both younger women and men – for a second straight month. Support for the Opposition among younger women aged 18-49 is at 76.5% (up 13% points on a month ago) while a slim majority of younger men aged 18-49 (51%, up 0.5% points) also support the opposition.
“In contrast, older electors aged 50+ – both women and men – favour the National-led governing Coalition (National, ACT, NZ First). A large majority of 60.5% (up 5.5% points) of women aged 50+ support the National-led Government and 66.5% (down 2.5% points) of men aged 50+ also support Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s government.
“This is the second straight month a clear age split has emerged with younger people favouring the Labour-led Opposition. This support is clearly driven by younger women with their support for the opposition (76.5%) well over triple their support for the government (20%).
“If a New Zealand Election were held now these support levels would result in 62 seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition and 58 seats for the National-led Government – a majority of four seats in the 120 seat Parliament – depending on any potential ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party won seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“However, there is some good news for the National-led Government with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cutting interest rates in late August by 0.25% to 3%. Official interest rates are now at their lowest for nearly three years since October 2022. This is the RBNZ’s seventh interest rate cut in the last year since August 2024 when interest rates were at 5.5%.
“While the latest annual growth figures show the economy has shrunk by 1.1% compared with a year ago, the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last year are providing renewed support to the economy which emerged from recession late last year with the latest quarterly growth estimates from Stats NZ showing growth of 0.8% in the March quarter 2025.
“New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be hoping the economy keeps improving over the next year with the country set to go to its next election in just over a year’s time. Luxon and his National colleagues will be hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government since 1975 – 50 years ago.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
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Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
