New Zealand: In July, National and Labour tied at 31%; National-led Government retains clear lead
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for July 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) virtually unchanged on 51% (down 0.5% points) and the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 46% (up 1.5% points).
For the tenth straight month neither major party has managed to secure a third of the vote. Within the National-led Government support for National was down 1% point to 31%, support for ACT was down 1% point to 10.5% and support for NZ First increased 1.5% points to 9.5% - the highest support for NZ First since the last New Zealand Election.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was up 2.5% points to 31%, support for the Greens increased 0.5% points to 11.5%, and support for the Māori Party dropped 1.5% to 3.5%.
A further 3% (down 1% point) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 1% (down 2% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 2% (up 1% point) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win a majority of 63 seats in a 120 seat Parliament
The survey results for July would lead to 63 seats (down five seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 57 seats (up two seats) for the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 38 seats (down 11 seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 13 seats (up two seats) and NZ First would win 12 seats (up four seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 38 seats (up four seats), Greens support would mean 14 seats (down one seat) and the Maori Party would win five seats (down one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 832 electors from June 30 – July 27, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (down 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 11.5pts to 83.5 in July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 11.5pts to 83.5 in July. Now a majority of 53.5% (up 7.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 37% (down 4% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand dropped 4.1pts to 94.7 in July and is 4 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 90.6 on July 28 – August 3, 2025.
Age gap opens up with older women and men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition while younger women and men favour the Labour/ Greens/ Māori Opposition
A clear age gap has opened up alongside the ‘gender split’ in July. The long-standing ‘gender gap’ shows a majority of 58% of men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 40% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. This gender gap is entirely driven by men over 50.
A large majority of 69% of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 30.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party – a gap of 38.5% points. Support for right-wing governing partners ACT (20%) and NZ First (12%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
However, younger men aged 18-49 narrowly favour the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party on 50.5% compared to 46% that support the National-led governing coalition. Support for Labour (35%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
In contrast, on an overall basis women remain in favour of the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori on 51.5% - ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 45% - and this is entirely driven by younger women aged 18-49. A large majority of younger women support the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party on 63.5%, nearly double the support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on only 33%. Support for the Greens (26.5%) and the Māori Party (6.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are clearly in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 55% well ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party on 41.5%. The combined support for the two major parties, National (37%) and Labour (34%) at a total of 71% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | July 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31 | 31 | 23.5 | 37 | 31 | 24.5 | 37 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 9.5 | 16 | 12 | 20 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 11 | 9.5 | 12 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 51 | 45 | 33 | 55 | 58 | 46 | 69 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 31 | 32.5 | 30.5 | 34 | 29.5 | 35 | 24 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 11.5 | 14 | 26.5 | 3.5 | 9 | 14.5 | 4.5 |
| Māori Party | 3.1 | 3.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party | 41.6 | 46 | 51.5 | 63.5 | 41.5 | 40 | 50.5 | 30.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 37 | 35.5 | 32 | 39 | 38.5 | 34.5 | 43 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 53.5 | 57 | 63 | 51 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 83.5 | 78.5 | 69 | 88 | 88.5 | 84.5 | 93 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 5 | 10 | 11.5 | 15.5 | 7 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is below the neutral level of 100 for all gender and age groups
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating decreased significantly in July 2025, down 11.5pts to 83.5.
A bare majority of men, 50% (up 13% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 38.5% (down 10.5% points) that say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 88.5 (down 23.5pts). The decrease in Government Confidence for men in July was broad-based. Government Confidence for younger men aged 18-49 dropped 24.5pts to 84.5 and for older men aged 50+ down by 22.5pts to 93.
Among women now a majority of 57% (up 2% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 35.5% (up 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 78.5 (unchanged). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped 4.5 points to 69 and the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ increased by 4 points to 88.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the National-led Government has maintained a clear lead over the Parliamentary Opposition for a fourth straight month in July:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) was virtually unchanged in July at 51% and remaining clearly ahead of the Parliamentary Opposition (Labour Party, Greens, Maori Party) on 46% (up 1.5% points) – a gap of 5% points.
“However, the fractured nature of politics in New Zealand continues with neither major party mustering a third of the electorate’s support for a tenth straight month. Both National (31%) and Labour (31%) are unable to capture a significant share of public support.
“If a New Zealand Election were held now these support levels would result in 63 seats for the National-led Government and 57 seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition – a majority of six seats in the 120 seat Parliament – depending on any potential ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party won seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“Support for the National-led Government has averaged 51% for the past three months following three interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) earlier this year – slashing interest rates from 4.25% in January to 3.25% today.
“However, at the RBNZ’s latest meeting in early July the RBNZ decided to leave interest rates unchanged. Both the Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating, down 11.5pts to 83.5, and the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence, down 4.1pts to 94.7, subsequently dropped in July.
“There is now a clear age split between how younger and older voters view the political situation. The National-led Government is heavily favoured over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition by men aged 50+ (69% cf. 30.5%) and women aged 50+ (55% cf. 41.5%).
“In contrast, younger New Zealanders aged 18-49 clearly favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government. Younger women aged 18-49 favour the Opposition by a wide margin (63.5% cf. 33%) while younger men are narrowly in favour (50.5% cf. 46%).
“For the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition to win next year’s election the parties of the left will need to find a way to broaden their appeal to older voters aged 50+.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
