New Zealand: In September, National-led Government and Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition are level
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for September 2025 shows an effectively even split between the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 48.5%, up 2% points from a month earlier, marginally in front of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition now on 47.5%, down 2.5% points.
Although the National-led Government is marginally in front, the tightness of the result between the two sides would result in a split Parliament with 60 seats for each side, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National increased 2.5% points to 31.5%, support for ACT dropped 1.5% points to 9% and support for NZ First increased 1% points to 8%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour dropped 5.5% points to 28.5%, support for the Greens was unchanged at 13.5%, and support for the Maori Party increased 3% points to 5.5%.
A further 4% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (down 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 1.5% (up 1% point) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government and Parliamentary Opposition tied on 60 seats in a 120 seat Parliament
The survey results for September would lead to a tie of 60 seats each for the National-led Government (down eight seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (up five seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 39 seats (down 10 seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 11 seats (unchanged) and NZ First would win 10 seats (up two seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 36 seats (up two seats from the election), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and the Maori Party would win seven seats (up one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 870 electors from August 25 – September 21, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (up 1.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 6pts to 89.5 in September
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 6pts to 89.5 in September. Now a plurality of 49.5% (down 4% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 39% (up 2% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 94.6 in September but is a large eight points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 86.3 on September 22-28, 2025.
Younger women favour the Labour-led Opposition, but other groups favour the Government
Younger women aged 18-49 are now the only gender and age group that favours the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (72%) by a margin of over three-to-one over the National-led Government (22%). Support for all three opposition parties including Labour (34%), the Greens (27.5%) and the Māori Party (10.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are clearly in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 56.5% well ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party on 43%. The combined support for the two major parties, National (38%) and Labour (31.5%) at a total of 69.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A majority of 58% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 37.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
A large majority of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (64%) compared to only 33% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party. Support for National (43%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 favour the National-led governing coalition on 50.5% compared to 43.5% that support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition. Support for ACT (17.5%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Sept. 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31.5 | 27.5 | 15.5 | 38 | 36 | 27.5 | 43 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9 | 4 | 4.5 | 4 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 11.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 8 | 8.5 | 2 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 9.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 48.5 | 40 | 22 | 56.5 | 58 | 50.5 | 64 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 28.5 | 32.5 | 34 | 31.5 | 24 | 23.5 | 25 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13.5 | 18 | 27.5 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 13 | 5 |
| Māori Party | 3.1 | 5.5 | 6 | 10.5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party | 41.6 | 47.5 | 56.5 | 72 | 43 | 37.5 | 43.5 | 33 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 3.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 6 | 3 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 39 | 34.5 | 27 | 42.5 | 43.5 | 35.5 | 53 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 49.5 | 55.5 | 60.5 | 49.5 | 43.5 | 48.5 | 37.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 89.5 | 79 | 66.5 | 93 | 100 | 87 | 115.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 11.5 | 10 | 12.5 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 9.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating increases 6 points to 89.5 in September
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased by 6pt to 89.5 in September 2025.
However, there is a clear gender split on the question and while men are evenly split on Government Confidence with a rating of 100 in September, up 8 points from August, women are in deeply negative territory with a Government Confidence Rating of only 79, but an increase of 3 points from a month ago.
For men now 43.5% (up 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ dead equal with 43.5% (down 7.5% points) that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. Government Confidence increased for men of all ages in September, up by 10.5 points to 87 for younger men aged 18-49, and up by 5.5 points to 115.5 for older men aged 50+ - a second straight monthly increase for older men.
Among women now a majority of 55.5% (unchanged) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 34.5% (up 3% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100. The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was virtually unchanged at only 66.5 and clearly the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ increased by 7 points to 93.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says there is little between the National-led Government and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition with neither side set to secure a majority of seats at next year’s election based on current levels of support:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) increased 2% points to 48.5% in September and is now just ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Maori Party) on 47.5%, down 2.5% points.
“However, the narrow margin means both sides would win 60 seats at next year’s election if these results were repeated at the election with neither side winning a majority of seats in the (likely) 120 seat Parliament. The ultimate size of the Parliament depends on any ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party wins seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“Interestingly, the National-led Government is favoured over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition by three of the main gender and age groups. The largest lead is among older men aged 50+ (64% cf. 33%), and there are also leads among older women aged 50+ (56.5% cf. 43%) and younger men aged 18-49 (50.5% cf. 43.5%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (72% cf. 22%) – a stunning lead of 50% points. Among this group, support for Labour (34%), the Greens (27.5%) and the Maori Party (10.5%) is higher than any of the three other gender and age groups analysed.
“There were contrasting factors at play in recent weeks which may have impacted the level of support for the National-led Government. The first factor, which would have had a positive impact on the Government’s support, was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to cut interest rates in late August by 0.25% to 3%.
“However, in late September the latest New Zealand GDP results were announced by Stats NZ for the 12 months to June 2025 showing GDP contracting by 0.9% in the June quarter 2025, and down by 1.1% compared to the 12 months to June 2024 a year ago.
“New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be hoping the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last year (a total of seven interest rate cuts by a total of 2.5% points from August 2024 to August 2025) will provide renewed support to the economy over the next year heading into the election due in just over a year’s time.
“Luxon and his National colleagues will be hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government since 1975 – 50 years ago.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
