New Zealand: In October, National-led Government edges ahead of Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for October 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 49.5%, up 1% point from a month earlier, marginally in front of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 45%, down 2.5% points, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National was virtually unchanged at 32%, support for ACT dropped 1% point to 8% and support for NZ First increased 1.5% points to 9.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 2% points to 30.5%, support for the Greens was down 1.5% points to 12%, and support for the Maori Party dropped 3% points to 2.5%.
A further 5.5% (up 1.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (unchanged) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 3% (up 1.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government would win 63 seats if a New Zealand Election were held now
The survey results for October would lead to the National-led Government winning 63 seats (down five seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 57 seats (up two seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 41 seats (down eight seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 10 seats (down one seat) and NZ First would win 12 seats (up four seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 39 seats (up five seats from the election), Greens support would mean 15 seats (unchanged) and the Maori Party would win three seats (down three seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 857 electors from September 29 – October 26, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 7.5pts to 82 in October
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down 7.5pts to 82 in October. Now a majority of 53.5% (up 4% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 35.5% (down 3.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 92.4 in October but is a large eight points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 84.5 on Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2025.
Younger women favour the Labour-led Opposition, but older men favour the Government
Younger women aged 18-49 are the only gender and age group that provides a majority of support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (58.5%) well ahead of the National-led Government (37%). Support for the Greens (19.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are split evenly between the National-led Government (48.5%) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (48.5%). The combined support for the two major parties, National (34.5%) and Labour (39%) at a total of 73.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A majority of 56% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 37.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. A large majority of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (66.5%) compared to only 29% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party. Support for National (40%), New Zealand First (14.5%) and ACT (12%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 are evenly split between the National-ledd governing coalition on 45.5% compared to 46% that support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Oct. 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 32 | 30.5 | 26 | 34.5 | 33.5 | 27 | 40 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 8 | 6 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 12 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 14.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 49.5 | 43 | 37 | 48.5 | 56 | 45.5 | 66.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 30.5 | 37.5 | 36 | 39 | 24 | 25.5 | 23 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 12 | 12.5 | 19.5 | 6 | 11.5 | 18 | 5 |
| Māori Party | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party | 41.6 | 45 | 53 | 58.5 | 48.5 | 37.5 | 46 | 29 |
| Others | 5.6 | 5.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 35.5 | 31 | 26 | 36.5 | 40 | 42.5 | 37.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 53.5 | 55.5 | 59 | 52.5 | 51.5 | 50 | 53 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 82 | 75.5 | 67 | 84 | 88.5 | 92.5 | 84.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 11 | 13.5 | 15 | 11 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating dropped 7.5 points to 82 in October
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 7.5 points to 82 in October 2025.
Importantly, all four gender and age groups analysed are deep in negative territory below 100 in October.
There was a significant drop in Government Confidence for men in October, down 11.5 points from September to 88.5. Women are even less confident with a Government Confidence Rating of only 75.5, down 3.5 points from a month ago.
For men now 51.5% (up 8% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ more than the 40% (down 3.5% points) that say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’. Government Confidence plunged for older men aged 50+, down 31 points to only 84.5. However, Government Confidence for younger men aged 18-49 increased marginally, up 5.5 points to 92.5.
Among women now a majority of 55.5% (unchanged) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 31% (down 3.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100. The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was virtually unchanged at only 67 and clearly the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ dropped by 9 points to 84.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government has gained a small advantage in October although the narrow margins suggest a tight contest for the next year’s election due in around a year’s time:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) increased 1% point to 49.5% in October and is now 4.5% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Maori Party) on 45%, down 2.5% points.
“These results, if repeated at next year’s election, would result in the National-led Government winning a majority of 63 seats compared to 57 seats for the Parliamentary Opposition in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament. The ultimate size of the Parliament depends on any ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party wins seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“The National-led Government draws it’s support most significantly from older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (66.5% cf. 29%). In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (58.5% cf. 37%).
“Importantly, there is nothing to split the two sides of politics amongst older women aged 50+ (48.5% cf. 48.5%) and only a narrow advantage for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition amongst younger men aged 18-49 (46% cf. 45.5%).
“The good news for the National-led Government in October was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to cut interest rates early in the month by 0.5% to 2.5% – now the lowest official interest rates have been for over three years since August 2022. This follows the RBNZ’s decision to cut interest rates in late August.
“However, in late September the latest New Zealand GDP results were announced by Stats NZ for the 12 months to June 2025 showing GDP contracting by 0.9% in the June quarter 2025, and down by 1.1% compared to the 12 months to June 2024 a year ago.
“New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be hoping the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last year (a total of eight interest rate cuts by a total of 3% points from August 2024 to October 2025) will provide renewed support to the economy over the next year heading into the election due in a year’s time.
“Luxon and his National colleagues will be hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government since 1975 – 50 years ago.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
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Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
