Entering 2026, the New Zealand Election due later this year remains on a knife-edge
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for December 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 50.5%, up 0.5% points from a month earlier, marginally in front of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 47%, up 2.5% points, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National was unchanged at 33%, support for NZ First increased 1% to 10%, while support for ACT was down 0.5% at 7.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was up 4.5% points to 32.5%, support for the Greens dropped 2.5% points to 12%, and support for the Maori Party was virtually unchanged at 2.5%.
A further 2.5% (down 3% points) of electors supported The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.), a minor party outside Parliament.
National-led Government would win 62 seats if a New Zealand Election were held now
The survey results for December would lead to the National-led Government winning 62 seats (down six seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 58 seats (up three seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 41 seats (down eight seats from the election), support for ACT would equal nine seats (down two seats) and NZ First would win 12 seats (up four seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 40 seats (up six seats from the election), Greens support would mean 15 seats (unchanged) and the Maori Party would win three seats (down three seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 859 electors from November 24 – December 21, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4.5% (up 1.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 85 in December
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 85 in December. A small majority of 52% (up 1.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 37% (up 1.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 101.5 in December and is a large 20 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 81.5 on December 15-21, 2025.
Younger people favour the Labour-led Opposition, but older ages favour the Government
A clear majority of 56.5% of women support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition compared to 42.5% that support the National-led Government. In contrast, a majority of 58% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 37.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Younger women aged 18-49 are the only gender and age group that provides a majority of support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (69.5%) more than double the National-led Government (30%). Support for Labour (43%), the Greens (21.5%), and the Maori Party (5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Support for the two sides of politics is tight for younger men aged 18-49 with a narrow plurality in support of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 47.5% ahead of the National-led governing coalition on 44.5% - a gap of only 3% points.
In contrast, older New Zealanders of both genders continue to favour the National-led Government. Women aged 50+ favour the National-led Government (53.5%) over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (45.5%). The combined support for the two major parties, National (34.5%) and Labour (36%) at a total of 70.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A large majority of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (68.5%) compared to only 29.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party. Support for National (41.5%), New Zealand First (14%) and ACT (13%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Dec. 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 33 | 31 | 21 | 39.5 | 35.5 | 28 | 41.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 2 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 13 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 10 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 50.5 | 42.5 | 30 | 53.5 | 58 | 44.5 | 68.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 32.5 | 40 | 43 | 37.5 | 25.5 | 27.5 | 23.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 12 | 13.5 | 21.5 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 4 |
| Māori Party | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party | 41.6 | 47 | 56.5 | 69.5 | 45.5 | 37.5 | 47.5 | 29.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 4.5 | 8 | 2 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 37 | 33 | 27.5 | 39 | 41 | 33 | 51 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 52 | 54 | 61 | 46.5 | 49.5 | 57 | 40.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 85 | 79 | 66.5 | 92.5 | 91.5 | 76 | 110.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 11 | 13 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 10 | 8.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 85 in December
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 85 in December 2025.
However, Government Confidence moved in different directions for the two genders in December with an increase in the Government Confidence Rating for women, up 4.5 points to 79, but still well below the Government confidence Rating for men on 91.5, down 6 points on a month ago.
For men now 49.5% (up 3% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 41% (down 1.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – equating to a Government Confidence Rating of 91.5. Government Confidence for older men aged 50+ increased 17.5 points to 110.5, but for younger men aged 18-49 dropped 23 points to 76.
Among women a majority of 54% (down 0.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 33% (up 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 79. The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 jumped 25 points to 92.5, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ dropped by 16 points to 66.5 – and clearly the lowest of any gender and age group analysed.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says this year’s New Zealand Election is on a knife edge with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government maintaining a narrow lead for a fourth straight month with support for the two major party’s neck-and-neck:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) increased 0.5% points to 50.5% in December and is just 3.5% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Maori Party) on 47%, up 2.5% points.
“The two major parties of government – National and Labour – enter the election year with almost identical support. National is on 33%, which would secure 41 seats in Parliament if repeated at the election, just ahead of Labour on 32.5% (40 seats).
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in the National-led Government winning a majority of 62 seats compared to 58 seats for the Parliamentary Opposition in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament. The ultimate size of the Parliament depends on any ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party wins seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“The National-led Government draws it’s support most significantly from older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (68.5% cf. 29.5%). In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (69.5% cf. 30%).
“Importantly, the National-led Government has maintained its lead among women aged 50+ for a second month (53.5% cf. 45.5%), underpinning its overall lead, although men aged 18-49 have swung back to favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (47.5% cf. 44.5%).
“The good news for the National-led Government in December was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to cut interest rates in late November by 0.25% to 2.25% – now the lowest official interest rates have been for over three years since July 2022.
“The RBNZ has cut interest rates by 2% points in 2025 and by a total of 3.25% points since August 2024. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be hoping the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last 18 months will provide renewed support to the economy in the run-up to this year’s election – due to be held towards the end of the year.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
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Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
