New Zealand: In November, National-led Government extends lead to largest since June 2025
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for November 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 50%, up 0.5% points from a month earlier, extending its lead in front of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 44.5%, down 0.5% points, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National was up 1% point to 33% - its highest level of support for more than a year since September 2024, support for NZ First virtually unchanged at 9% and support for ACT unchanged at 8%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour dropped 2.5% points to 28% - its lowest level of support since March 2025, support for the Greens increased 2.5% points to 14.5% - its highest level of support since March 2025, and support for the Maori Party was virtually unchanged at 2%.
A further 5.5% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (unchanged) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 3% (unchanged) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government would win 63 seats if a New Zealand Election were held now
The survey results for November would lead to the National-led Government winning 63 seats (down five seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 57 seats (up two seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 42 seats (down seven seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 10 seats (down one seat) and NZ First would win 11 seats (up three seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 36 seats (up two seats from the election), Greens support would mean 18 seats (up three seats) and the Maori Party would win three seats (down three seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 829 electors from October 27 – November 23, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3% (down 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 3pts to 85 in November
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was increased 3pts to 85 in November. A bare majority of 50.5% (down 3% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 35.5% (unchanged) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 98.4 in November but is a large 12.9 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 85.5 on Nov 24-30, 2025.
Younger women favour the Labour-led Opposition, but other groups favour the Government
Younger women aged 18-49 are the only gender and age group that provides a majority of support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (66%) well ahead of the National-led Government (25%). Support for Labour (41.5%) and the Maori Party (8%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ now clearly favour the National-led Government (53.5%) over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (43%). The combined support for the two major parties, National (34.5%) and Labour (36%) at a total of 70.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
A majority of 58.5% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 36.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. A large majority of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (65%) compared to only 30% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party. Support for National (40%), New Zealand First (14%) and ACT (11%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 have a clear preference for the National-led governing coalition on 52% compared to 43.5% that support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition. Interestingly, more younger men now support the Greens (23%) than the Labour Party (20.5%) and this high level of support for the Greens is higher than any other gender and age groups analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Nov. 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 33 | 27.5 | 18.5 | 34.5 | 38 | 36 | 40 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 10 | 8.5 | 6 | 11 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 50 | 41 | 25 | 53.5 | 58.5 | 52 | 65 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 28 | 38.5 | 41.5 | 36 | 18 | 20.5 | 16 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 16.5 | 6.5 | 18 | 23 | 13 |
| Māori Party | 3.1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Māori Party | 41.6 | 44.5 | 53 | 66 | 43 | 36.5 | 43.5 | 30 |
| Others | 5.6 | 5.5 | 6 | 9 | 3.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 35.5 | 29 | 25.5 | 33 | 42.5 | 44.5 | 40.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 50.5 | 54.5 | 58 | 50.5 | 46.5 | 45.5 | 47.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 85 | 74.5 | 67.5 | 82.5 | 96 | 99 | 93 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 14 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating increased 3 points to 85 in November
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 3 points to 85 in November 2025. For a second straight month, all four gender and age groups analysed are in negative territory below 100.
There was an increase in Government Confidence for men in November, up 7.5 points to 96. Women are even less confident with a Government Confidence Rating of only 74.5, down 1 point from a month ago.
For men now 46.5% (down 5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 42.5% (up 2.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’. Government Confidence for older men aged 50+ increased 8.5 points to 93 and for younger men aged 18-49 increased 6.5 points to 99.
Among women a majority of 54.5% (down 1% point) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 29% (down 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 74.5. The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was virtually unchanged at only 67.5 and clearly the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ dropped by 1.5 points to 82.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government has increased its advantage in November although still falling short of a majority of the electorate less than a year out from next year’s election:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) increased 0.5% points to 50% in November and is now 5.5% points ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Maori Party) on 44.5%, down 0.5% points.
“These results, if repeated at next year’s election, would result in the National-led Government winning a majority of 63 seats compared to 57 seats for the Parliamentary Opposition in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament. The ultimate size of the Parliament depends on any ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party wins seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“The National-led Government draws it’s support most significantly from older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (65% cf. 30%). In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (66% cf. 25%).
“Importantly, the National-led Government has seized a decisive lead amongst older women aged 50+ (53.5% cf. 43%) and younger men aged 18-49 (52% cf. 43.5%).
“The good news for the National-led Government in November was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to cut interest rates in October by 0.5%, and again in late November by 0.25% to 2.25% – now the lowest official interest rates have been for over three years since July 2022. The RBNZ has now cut interest rates by 2% points so far this year.
“New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be hoping the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last year (a total of nine interest rate cuts by a total of 3.25% points from August 2024 to November 2025) will provide renewed support to the economy over the next year heading into the election due in a year’s time.
“Luxon and his National colleagues will be hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government since 1975 – 50 years ago.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
