Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: Support for National-led Government and Labour-led Opposition now tied
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for March 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 47.5%, down 1% point and effectively tied with the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition on 48%, up 1% point, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll finds.
Amongst the National-led Government support for National dropped 4.5% to 26.5% - its lowest level of support since National was elected to Government in late 2023, support for NZ First was up 1.5% to 11% - its highest level of support since being elected to Government, while support for ACT was up 2% to 10%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 4% points to 34%, support for the Greens dropped 3.5% points to 11%, and support for Te Pāti Māori was up 0.5% to 3%.
A further 4.5% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 4% (unchanged) who support Opportunity and a further 0.5% (unchanged) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government and Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition set for 60 seats each
The survey results for March would lead to the National-led Government winning 60 seats (down eight seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 60 seats (up five seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 33 seats (down 16 seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 13 seats (up two seats) and NZ First would win 14 seats (up six seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 42 seats (up eight seats), Greens support would mean 14 seats (down one seat) and Te Pāti Māori would win four seats (down two seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 872 electors from February 23 – March 22, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 1.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was dropped 6.5 points to 78 in March
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was dropped 6.5 points to 78 in March. A growing majority of 56% (up 4% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 34% (down 2.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was at 91.3 in March and is a large 32.5 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 58.8 on March 23-29, 2026.
Younger people favour the Labour-led Opposition, older women and men favour the Government
A majority of 54% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 41.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, women clearly support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 55.5% ahead of the National-led Government on 40.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 provide the largest support to the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (64%) compared to 29% for the National-led Government. Support for Labour (43.5%), and the Te Pāti Māori (9%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Among younger men, there is now a clear advantage for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 55%, just ahead of the National-led governing coalition on 39.5%. Support for the Greens (14%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Women aged 50+ narrowly favour the National-led Government (51.5%) ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (47%). The combined support for the two major parties, National (37%) and Labour (36%) at a total of 73% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Importantly, a large majority of men aged over 50 support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition (70.5%) compared to only 26.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori. Support for National (40%), ACT (15.5%) and New Zealand First (15%) is higher among this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Mar. 2026 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 26.5 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 37 | 27.5 | 16 | 40 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 10 | 6 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 13.5 | 12 | 15.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 11.5 | 15 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 47.5 | 40.5 | 29 | 51.5 | 54 | 39.5 | 70.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 34 | 39.5 | 43.5 | 36 | 29 | 40.5 | 16.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 11 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 12 | 14 | 9.5 |
| Te Pāti Māori** | 3.1 | 3 | 5.5 | 9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Te Pāti Māori | 41.6 | 48 | 55.5 | 64 | 47 | 41.5 | 55 | 26.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4 | 7 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 34 | 27.5 | 24.5 | 31.5 | 40 | 33.5 | 48 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 56 | 60 | 68.5 | 51.5 | 52 | 58 | 45.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 78 | 67.5 | 56 | 80 | 88 | 75.5 | 102.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 10 | 12.5 | 7 | 17 | 8 | 8.5 | 6.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating for men (88) is over 20 points higher than for women (67.5)
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was virtually dropped by 6.5 points to 78 in March 2026. The Government Confidence Rating for women dropped 5.5 points to 67.5 in March, while for men the Government Confidence Rating was down by 8.5 points to 88.
For men now 52% (up 5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 40% (down 3.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – Government Confidence of 88. For older men aged 50+ Government Confidence was dropped 13 points to 102.5, and for younger men aged 18-49 dropped by 5 points to 75.5.
Among women a majority of 60% (up 3.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 27.5% (down 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – putting the indicator deep into negative territory below 100 at only 67.5. Government Confidence for younger women aged 18-49 dropped a further 4.5 points to 56, while the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ was down by 6.5 points to 80.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says there is an effective tie between the National-led Government of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition only seven months before this year’s New Zealand election in early November:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) dropped 1% point to 47.5% in March and is now effectively level with the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) on 48%, up 1% point.
“Support for National dropped 4.5% points to 26.5% – the lowest level of support for National for over four years since November 2021 before the last New Zealand Election. Support for National’s governing partners has increased at National’s expense with New Zealand First up 1.5% points to 11% and ACT up 2% points to 10%.
“In contrast, support for Labour increased 4% points to 34% – its highest level of support since August 2025, coming at the expense of its likely governing partners the Greens, down 3.5% points to 11%. Support for potential third partner the Te Pāti Māori remains below the 5% threshold at only 3%.
“The overall results, if repeated at the election, would result in a tie between the two sides – the National-led Government on 60 seats in a (likely) 120 seat Parliament dead level with the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition also on 60 seats. The ultimate size of the Parliament depends on any ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party wins seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“The National-led Government draws its support most significantly from older men aged 50+ with a large lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (70.5% cf. 26.5%). Women aged 50+ also favour the National-led Government by a far narrower margin (51.5% cf. 47%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the central pillar of support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition over the National-led Government (64% cf. 29%). In addition, men aged 18-49 continue to favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (55% cf. 39.5%).
“Of concern for the Luxon-led Government will be the low Government Confidence Rating at only 78 – the lowest Government Confidence Rating since the election victory in late 2023.
“An increasing majority of 56% (up 4% points) of New Zealand electors say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 34% (down 2.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’. In addition, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence crashed 8.8 points to 91.3 in March its lowest level since October 2024.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
