Roy Morgan Research
Federal Voting – Primary Voting Intention (%) (2013-2024)

Federal Voting – Primary Voting Intention (%) (2013-2024)


Recent Election Results (%) 1996-2022

ALP L-NP The Greens One Nation NXT/Centre Alliance Ind./Others
Election May 21, 2022 32.6 35.7 (3.8) 12.3 5.0 0.3 14.1
Election May 18, 2019 33.3 41.4 (4.8) 10.4 3.1 0.3 11.5
Election July 2, 2016 34.7 42.0 (4.8) 10.2 1.3 1.9 9.9
Election September 7, 2013 33.4 45.5 (4.3) 8.7 0.2 n/a 12.2
Election August 21, 2010 38.0 43.6 (3.7) 11.8 0.2 n/a 6.4
Election November 24, 2007 43.4 42.1 (5.9) 7.8 0.3 n/a 6.4
Election October 9, 2004 37.6 46.4 (5.9) 7.2 1.2 n/a 7.6
Election November 10, 2001 37.8 43.0 (5.6) 4.4 4.3 n/a 9.6
Election October 3^, 1998 40.1 39.5 (5.3) 2.1 8.4 n/a 9.9
Election March 2, 1996 38.8 47.3 (8.6) 1.7 0.3 n/a 11.9

Latest Roy Morgan Poll Results (%) 2022-2024

 

ALP Liberal Party National Party Total L-NP Total Others Greens Indepen-dents (ALL) Other Parties (ALL) Can’t say/ Refused
Change +1.0 -1.0 +1.5 +0.5 -1.0 0 -1.5 0 -1.0
2024
April 14 30.5 34.0 4.5 38.5 31.5 13.5 7.5 10.5 6.5
April 7 29.5 35.0 3.0 38.0 32.5 13.5 9.0 10.5 7.5
March 31 30.0 34.5 2.5 37.5 32.5 15.5 9.0 8.0 8.5
March 24 31.5 34.0 4.0 38.0 30.5 14.0 7.5 9.5 6.5
March 17 31.5 33.5 3.5 37.0 31.5 13.0 9.0 10.0 7.5
March 10 32.0 33.5 4.5 38.0 30.0 13.0 9.0 8.0 7.5
March 3 34.0 32.5 4.0 36.0 29.5 13.5 8.5 7.0 8.5
February 25 31.5 34.0 4.0 37.5 30.5 12.0 8.5 10.0 6.5
February 18 34.0 32.5 4.5 37.0 29.0 13.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
February 11 34.5 33.0 3.5 36.5 29.0 12.0 6.0 11.0 8.0
February 4  33.0 33.5 3.5 37.0 30.0 12.0 9.5 9.0 8.5
January 28
31.0 34.5 3.0 37.5 31.5 13.0 7.0 11.5 8.0
January 21
32.5 31.5 4.5 36.0 31.5 12.5 8.5 10.5 9.0
January 14 31.5 33.5 3.5 37.0 31.5 12.0 9.5 10.0 6.0
January 7 29.0 35.0 4.0 39.0 32.5 13.0 8.5 10.5 7.0
2023
December 17 32.0 34.0 4.0 38.0 30.0 11.5 8.5 9.5 7.0
December 10 30.5 32.5 4.5 37.0 32.5 14.0 7.5 11.0 8.5
December 3 32.5 34.0 3.5 37.5 30.0 12.5 8.5 9.0 8.5
November 26 32.0 31.5 3.5 35.0 33.0 13.5 9.0 10.5 7.5
November 19 29.5 34.0 3.5 37.5 33.0 13.5 7.5 12.0 9.5
November 12 30.0 34.0 3.0 37.0 33.0 13.0 8.0 12.0 8.5
November 5 31.5 30.0 5.0 35.0 33.5 13.5 10.0 10.0 6.0
October 29 32.0 32.0 3.5 35.5 32.5 15.0 8.5 9.0 6.5
October 22 31.5 32.5 3.5 36.0 32.0 14.0 8.5 5.0 6.5
October 15 35.0 30.0 4.5 34.5 31.0 14.0 7.0 5.0 8.5
October 8 33.0 30.5 3.5 34.0 33.0 13.5 6.5 6.5 7.0
October 1 32.5 34.0 3.5 37.5 30.5 13.0 8.0 3.5 7.5
September 24 32.5 31.0 4.0 35.0 32.5 13.5 9.5 3.0 7.0
September 17 32.0 30.0 4.5 34.5 33.5 15.5 8.5 4.0 6.5
September 10 32.5 33.0 4.0 37.0 31.0 13.5 8.0 3.5 9.0
September 3 33.5 34.0 3.5 37.5 29.0 13.0 7.0 4.5 7.5
August 27 35.0 30.5 4.5 35.0 30.0 13.5 6.5 5.0 8.5
August 20  33.5 32.5 4.0 36.5 30.0 12.5 8.5 3.0 8.0
August 13  35.5 31.5 3.0 34.5 30.0 12.0 9.0 4.0 8.0
August 6  33.5 32.0 3.0 35.0 31.5 13.0 9.0 4.0 7.0
July 30  34.5 31.0 3.5 34.5 31.0 12.5 9.5 3.5 8.0
July 23  33.5 33.0 4.5 37.5 29.0 12.5 9.0 2.5 8.5
July 16  35.5 30.5 4.0 35.0 29.5 12.5 6.5 5.0 9.0
July 9  34.5 30.5 4.5 35.0 30.5 12.5 8.5 4.0 7.5
July 2  36.5 30.0 4.0 33.5 29.5 13.0 7.0 3.5 8.5
June 25  37.5 28.0 3.5 32.0 31.0 13.0 9.0 3.5 6.5
June 18  37.0 29.0 5.0 34.0 29.0 13.0 7.5 3.5 8.0
June 11  35.0 28.0 5.0 33.0 32.0 13.0 8.0 5.0 7.0
June 4  35.0 31.0 3.5 34.5 30.5 13.0 9.0 3.0 8.5
May 28  36.0 30.0 3.0 33.5 30.5 12.0 9.5 4.0 6.0
May 21  35.0 30.0 3.5 33.5 31.5 13.0 9.5 4.0 7.5
May 14  37.5 30.0 3.5 33.5 30.0 13.0 8.5 4.0 6.0
May 7  35.5 31.5 4.0 35.5 29.5 12.5 9.0 3.0 6.0
April 30  36.0 31.5 4.0 35.5 29.0 13.0 7.0 3.0 10.0
April 23  35.5 29.5 4.0 33.5 31.0 13.5 9.5 3.0 10.0
April 16  37.0 29.0 4.0 33.0 30.0 12.0 8.5 4.5 7.5
April 9  36.5 29.0 4.5 33.5 30.0 12.5 9.0 2.0 8.0
April 2  34.5 31.0 3.5 34.5 31.0 13.0 8.5 4.5 7.0
March 26  35.5 29.0 3.0 32.0 32.5 13.0 9.0 4.5 8.5
March 19  37.5 28.0 4.0 32.0 30.5 13.0 8.5 3.5 8.0
March 12  37.0 30.0 4.0 34.0 29.0 12.5 6.5 5.0 7.5
March 5  38.0 29.5 4.0 33.5 28.5 11.5 8.5 3.0 7.0
February 26  37.0 30.5 4.0 34.5 28.5 13.0 8.5 2.5 7.5
February 19  36.5 29.5 3.5 33.0 30.0 13.0 8.0 3.5 7.5
February 12  37.0 30.0 3.5 33.5 29.5 12.5 8.0 4.0 8.0
February 5  37.5 28.5 4.5 33.0 29.5 12.5 9.0 2.5 9.5
January 29  37.5 29.5 4.0 33.5 29.0 11.5 9.5 3.0 8.0
January 22  39.0 28.5 4.0 32.5 28.5 11.5 9.0 4.0 7.0
January 15  39.5 27.5 4.0 31.5 29.0 12.5 8.0 3.5 7.0
January 8  39.5 27.0 4.0 31.0 29.5 11.5 8.5 3.0 6.0
2022
December 16  38.0 28.0 4.5 32.5 29.5 12.5 8.0 4.5 8.0
December 11  37.0 29.0 4.0 33.0 29.5 12.5 8.0 5.0 8.5
December 4 36.5 33.5 4.0 33.5 25.0 14.0 8.5 5.5 10.5
November 27 37.5 32.0 5.5 37.5 25.0 11.0 7.0 3.5 11.0
November 20 36.5 33.0 4.5 37.5 26.0 11.0 7.5 3.5 7.5
November 13 37.0 32.0 5.5 37.5 25.5 11.5 8.0 3.5 7.5
November 6 37.0 35.0 4.0 39.0 24.0 11.0 6.0 3.0 8.0
October 30 38.0 33.0 4.5 37.0 24.5 11.5 6.0 4.0 6.0
October 23 36.5 34.0 3.0 37.5 26.0 11.0 8.0 2.5 6.0
October 16 37.5 33.5 3.0 36.5 6.5 11.5 7.5 3.0 4.5
October 9 37.0 33.0 4.0 37.5 25.5 10.5 7.5 4.0 5.5
October 2 38.0 33.5 3.5 37.0 25.0 11.0 6.5 4.0 5.0
September 25 36.5 32.0 4.5 36.5 27.0 12.0 9.0 3.0 6.0
September 18 37.0 32.0 4.0 36.0 27.0 12.0 7.5 3.5 6.0
September 11 36.5 32.5 5.0 37.5 26.0 12.0 6.0 4.0 6.0
September 4 36.0 32.5 4.0 36.5 27.5 12.0 7.5 4.0 6.5
August 28 36.0 34.0 5.5 40.0 24.5 10.5 6.0 4.0 5.5
August 21 37.5 33.0 5.0 38.5 24.5 11.5 7.0 3.0 7.0
August 14 36.5 34.5 4.5 39.0 24.5 11.5 6.0 3.0 7.5

Earlier Roy Morgan Poll Results 2013-2022


ALP
L-NP
The Greens
One Nation
NXT/ Centre AllianceInd./Others
May 9-15, 20223434 (3.5)134n/a15
May 2-8, 202235.534 (4)134n/a13.5
April 25 - May 1, 20223535 (3)133n/a14
April 18-24, 20223535.5 (3.5)124.5n/a13
April 11-17, 20223535.5 (3)144.5n/a11
April 4-10, 20223632.5 (3.5)12.55n/a14
March 28 - April 3, 202239.533 (2.5)113.5n/a13
March 21-27, 202235.533 (2.5)12.53.5n/a15.5
March 14-20, 202237.531 (3)123n/a16.5
March 3-13, 20223733.5 (3)11.53n/a15
February 24 - March 2, 202237.534 (2.5)11.53.5n/a13.5
February 14-23, 202237.532.5 (4)12.53.5n/a14
January 31 - February 13, 202238.533 (3)11.54n/a13
January 17-30, 202237.533 (3)11.53.5n/a14.5
January 4-16, 20223734.5 (3.5)123n/a13.5
2022
December 11/12 & 18/19, 20213734.5 (2.5)11.54n/a13
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 20213634.5 (3.5)12.53.5n/a13.5
November 13/14 & 20/21, 202135.535.5 (4)123.5n/a13.5
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 20213536.5 (4)11.53n/a14
October 16/17 & 23/24, 20213536.5 (4)13.53.5n/a11.5
October 2/3 & 9/10, 20213637.5 (4.5)11.53n/a12
September 18/19 & 25/26, 20213636 (3.5)12.53.5n/a12
September 4/5 & 11/12, 20213538.5 (3.5)133n/a10.5
August 21/22 & 28/29, 202138.537.5 (3.5)11.53n/a9.5
August 7/8 & 14/15, 202137.537.5 (4)12.53.5
n/a9
July 24/25 & 31/ August 1, 20213737 (3)12.53n/a10.5
July 10/11 & 17/18, 20213739 (4.5)11.53n/a9.5
June 12/13 & 19/20, 202134.541.5 (3.5)123.5n/a8.5
May 29/30 & June 5/6, 202135.540 (3.5)11.53n/a10
March 6/7 & 13/14, 202134.541 (3.5)12.52.5n/a9.5
February 6/7 & 13/14, 202134.540 (4)133.5n/a9
2021
November 14/15 & 21/22, 20203442 (3.5)124n/a8
October 17/18 & 24/25, 20203442.5 (3.5)124n/a7.5
August 8/9 & 15/16, 202032.546 (3.5)113n/a7.5
July 11/12 & 18/19, 202033.543.5 (3)112.5n/a9.5
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202034.542.5 (3.5)10.54n/a8.5
May 16/17 & 23/24, 20203344.5 (3.5)113.5n/a8
April 18/19 & 25/26, 20203343.5 (3)11.53n/a9
February 28/March 1 & 7/8, 20203636.5 (2.5)114n/a12.5
2020
2019 Federal Election - May 18, 201933.341.4 (4.8)10.43.10.311.5
April 20/21, 201935.539 (2.5)9.54.5n/a11.5
April 6/7, 20193537 (3)13.54n/a10.5
March 16/17 & 23/24, 201936.534.5 (2.5)12.53.5n/a13
February 16/17, 201934.537 (3.5)11.53.5n/a13.5
February 2/3 & 9/10, 20193634.5 (2.5)12.53n/a14
2019





August 25/26, 20183636.5 (4.5)132.50.511.5
August 24, 2018 - Scott Morrison emerges victorious in a three way leadership ballot and becomes Prime Minister
August 18/29, 201834.539 (4.5)122111.5
March 17/18 & 24/25, 20183540 (5.5)123.50.59
March 3/4 & 10/11, 20183636 (2.5)13.531.510
2018





2016 Federal Election - July 2, 201634.742 (4.8)10.21.31.99.9
May 21/22 & 28/29, 201632.537.5 (3.5)13n/a512
May 14/15, 20163336.5 (3)15.5n/a510
April 23/24, 30/ May 1, 201632.540 (3)13.5n/a410
April 9/10 & 16/17, 20163240.5 (3)14n/a4.59
March 26/27 & April 2/3, 20163142 (3.5)13n/a4.59.5
March 12/13 & 19/20, 20163340 (3.5)14n/a49
February 27/28 & March 5/6, 201629.543 (3.5)13n/a59.5
February 13/14 & 20/21, 201629.543.5 (3.5)15n/a1.510.5
January 30/31 & February 6/7, 20162943.5 (2.5)16n/a110.5
January 16/17 & 23/24, 20162843.5 (3)15n/a211.5
January 2/3 & 9/10, 20162947 (3)13n/an/a11
2016
December 5/6 & 12/13, 20152748 (3)14.5n/an/a10.5
November 21/22 & 28/29, 201528.546.5 (2.5)14n/an/a11
November 7/8 & 14/15, 20152846 (2.5)14.5n/an/a11.5
October 24/25, 31 & November 1, 201528.547 (3)14.5n/an/a10
October 10/11 & 17/18, 201527.546.5 (3)15.5n/an/a10.5
September 26/27 & October 1-5, 201527.547 (3)14n/an/a11.5
September 19/20, 201529.546 (2.5)13n/an/a11.5
September 15, 2015 - Malcolm Turnbull challenges and defeats Tony Abbott to become Prime Minister
September 12/13, 201536.535 (2.5)16n/an/a12.5
August 29/30 & September 5/6, 201535.536.5 (2)16.5n/an/a11.5
August 15/16 & 22/23, 20153638.5 (2.5)14n/an/a11.5
August 1/2 & 8/9, 20153736.5 (3)15.5n/an/a11
July 18/19 & 25/26, 201535.539 (2.5)15n/an/a10.5
July 4/5 & 11/12, 201534.541.5 (2.5)13.5n/an/a10.5
June 20/21 & 27/28, 20153639 (2)14n/an/a11
June 6/7 & 13/14, 201537.537.5 (2.5)13.5n/an/a11.5
May 23/24 & 30/31, 20153741 (3)13n/an/a9
May 16/17, 201535.541.5 (3)12.5n/an/a10.5
April 25/26 & May 2/3, 201537.540 (2.5)11.5n/an/a11
April 11/12 & 18/19, 20153838.5 (2.5)12n/an/a11.5
March 28/29 & April 3-6, 20153640.5 (3)12.5n/an/a11
March 14/15 & 21/22, 20154038 (3)11n/an/a11
February 28/ March 1 & 7/8, 20153839 (2.5)11.5n/an/a11.5
February 14/15 & 21/22, 201540.537.5 (2.5)10n/an/a12
January 31/ February 1 & 7/8, 201541.535.5 (2)12n/an/a11
January 23-27, 201539.537.5 (2.5)12n/an/a11
January 3/4 & 10/11, 201538.538.5 (2.5)9.5n/an/a13.5
2015
December 6/7 & 13/14, 20144135 (3)11.5n/an/a12.5
November 22/23 & 29/30, 201437.539 (2.5)12n/an/a11.5
November 8/9 & 15/16, 201438.538 (2)12n/an/a11.5
October 25/26 & November 1/2, 201437.538.5 (2)12.5n/an/a11.5
October 11/12 & 18/19, 201435.539.5 (2.5)12n/an/a13
September 27/28 & October 4/5, 20143540 (2)12n/an/a13
September 13/14 & 20/21, 201437.538.5 (2)12n/an/a12
August 30/31 & September 6/7, 20143738 (2.5)10.5n/an/a14.5
August 16/17 & 23/24, 201438.537.5 (2.5)10.5n/an/a13.5
August 2/3 & 9/10, 20143837.5 (2.5)11n/an/a13.5
July 19/20 & 26/27, 20143938 (2)10.5n/an/a12.5
July 5/6 & 12/13, 201438.534 (2)11.5n/an/a16
June 21/22 & 28/29, 201436.535 (2.5)12n/an/a16.5
June 14/15, 20143836.5 (2)12n/an/a13.5
June 7/8, 20144233 (1.5)12n/an/a13
May 24/25 & 31/ June 1, 20143835 (2)11n/an/a16
May 17/18, 201438.535 (2)12n/an/a14.5
April 26/27 & May 3/4, 20143737.5 (2)12n/an/a13.5
April 12/13 & 19/20, 20143438.5 (2)13n/an/a14.5
March 29/30 & April 5/6, 201434.538.5 (2)12n/an/a15
March 15/16 & 22/23, 201438.538 (2)11n/an/a12.5
March 1/2 & 8/9, 20143739.5 (2)12n/an/a11.5
February 15/16 & 22/23, 201435.541 (2.5)10.5n/an/a13
February 1/2 & 8/9, 20143740.5 (2)10.5n/an/a12
January 18/19 & 25/26, 20143739.5 (2)11.5n/an/a12
January 4/5 & 11/12, 20143839 (2)10.5n/an/a12.5
2014
December 7/8 & 14/15, 2013 (Multi-mode)38.540.5 (2)10n/an/a11
November 30/ December 1, 2013 (Multi-mode)38.541.5 (2)8.5n/an/a11.5
November 16/17, 2013 (Multi-mode)32.542.5 (2.5)11n/an/a14
November 2/3, 2013 (Multi-mode)3541.5 (1.5)10.5n/an/a13
October 19/20, 2013 (Multi-mode)34.543.5 (2.5)10n/an/a12
October 13, 2013 - Bill Shorten is elected as the new leader of the ALP over Anthony Albanese
October 5/6, 2013 (Multi-mode)

3742 (2)9n/an/a12
September 21/22, 2013 (Multi-mode)3443.5 (2.5)10.5n/an/a12
September 7, 2013 - Tony Abbott leads the L-NP (53.5%) cf. ALP (46.5%) to Federal Election victory

Note: ^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.*An increasing proportion of Greens voters are indicating a preference for the L-NP ahead of the ALP. At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%.

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