Roy Morgan Research
Federal Voting – Two Party Preferred Voting Intention (%) (2016-2024)

Federal Voting – Two Party Preferred Voting Intention (%) (2016-2024)


Recent Federal Election Results

Election Date L-NP (%) ALP (%)
May 21, 2022 47.9 52.1
May 18, 2019 51.5 48.5
July 2, 2016 50.3 49.7
September 7, 2013 53.5 46.5
August 21, 2010 49.9 50.1
November 24, 2007 47.3 52.7
October 9, 2004 52.7 47.3
November 10, 2001 51.0 49.0
October 3, 1998 49.0 51.0
March 2, 1996 53.6 46.4

Roy Morgan Poll Two Party Preferred Trends (2024-25)

Preferences distributed by how electors told us they should be Preferences distributed by preference flows at the
2022 Federal Election
DATE ALP L-NP MARGIN ALP L-NP MARGIN
June 30, 2024 51.0% 49.0% 2.0% 52.5% 47.5% 5.0%
June 23, 2024 51.0% 49.0% 2.0% 52.5% 47.5% 5.0%
June 16, 2024 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 51.0% 49.0% 2.0%
June 9, 2024 53.5% 46.5% 7.0% 53.5% 46.5% 7.0%
June 2, 2024 52.0% 48.0% 4.0% 52.5% 47.5% 5.0%
May 26, 2024 48.5% 51.5% -3.0% 51.0% 49.0% 2.0%
May 19, 2024 50.5% 49.5% 1.0% 52.5% 47.5% 5.0%
May 12, 2024 52.0% 48.0% 4.0% 52.5% 47.5% 5.0%
May 5, 2024 52.0% 48.0% 4.0% 51.0% 49.0% 2.0%
Apr 28, 2024 52.0% 48.0% 4.0% 52.5% 47.5% 5.0%
Apr 21, 2024 52.0% 48.0% 4.0% 52.0% 48.0% 4.0%
Apr 14, 2024 51.0% 51.0% -2.0% 50.5% 49.5% 1.0%
Apr 7, 2024 49.5% 50.5% -1.0% 50.5% 49.5% 1.0%
Mar 31, 2024 51.0% 49.0% 2.0% 52.0% 48.0% 4.0%
Mar 24, 2024 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 52.0% 48.0% 4.0%
Mar 17, 2024 51.5% 48.5% 3.0% 52.0% 48.0% 4.0%

 

Latest Results of Two Party Preferred Voting without Other/Undecided 2022-2024

Date Total ALP TPP Total L-NP TPP
2024
March 10 51.5% 48.5%
March 3 54.0% 46.0%
February 25 50.0% 50.0%
February 18 53.0% 47.0%
February 11 52.0% 48.0%
February 4 53.0% 47.0%
January 28 50.5% 49.5%
January 21 52.5% 47.5%
January 14 51.5% 48.5%
January 7 49.0% 51.0%
2023
December 17 50.0% 50.0%
December 10 51.0% 49.0%
December 3 51.0% 49.0%
November 26 53.0% 47.0%
November 19 49.5% 50.5%
November 12 50.0% 50.0%
November 5 52.0% 48.0%
October 29 53.0% 47.0%
October 22 49.5% 50.5%
October 15 54.0% 46.2%
October 8 53.0% 47.0%
October 1 52.0% 48.0%
September 24 54.0% 46.0%
September 17 54.0% 46.0%
September 10 52.5% 47.5%
September 3 53.0% 47.0%
August 27 53.5% 46.5%
August 20 53.0% 47.0%
August 13 54.5% 45.5%
August 6 53.5% 46.5%
July 30 53.0% 47.0%
July 23 52.0% 48.0%
July 16 52.5% 47.5%
July 9 54.5% 45.5%
July 2 56.0% 44.0%
June 25 57.0% 43.0%
June 18 57.0% 43.0%
June 11 55.8% 44.2%
June 4 55.4% 44.6%
May 28 55.5% 44.5%
May 21 55.3% 44.7%
May 14 57.0% 43.0%
May 14 58.4% 41.6%
May 7 54.7% 45.3%
April 30 53.6% 46.4%
April 23 56.5% 43.5%
April 16 56.2% 43.8%
April 9 56.2% 43.8%
April 2 54.5% 45.5%
March 26 56.8% 43.2%
March 19 58.1% 41.9%
March 12 56.3% 43.7%
March 5 54.6% 45.4%
February 26 56.5% 43.5%
February 19 58.3% 41.7%
February 12 56.4% 43.6%
February 5 58.4% 41.6%
January 29 56.9% 58.9%
January 22 58.9% 41.1%
January 15 59.4% 40.6%
January 8 58.6% 41.4%
2022
December 16 58.7% 41.3%
December 11 56.6% 43.4%
December 11 58.5% 41.5%
December 4 54.6% 45.4%
November 27 52.3% 47.7%
November 20 53.4% 46.6%
November 13 53.4% 46.6%
November 6 53.3% 46.7%
October 30 55.6% 44.4%
October 23 54.5% 45.5%
October 16 54.8% 45.2%
October 9 54.9% 45.1%
October 2 55.0% 45.0%
September 25 54.5% 45.5%
September 18 54.7% 45.3%
September 11 53.6% 46.4%
September 4 53.5% 46.5%
August 28 52.0% 48.0%
August 21 52.7% 47.3%
August 14 53.0% 47.0%

 

Roy Morgan Poll Two Party Preferred Trends (2018-22)

 

Date Preferences distributed
by how electors say they will vote
Preferences distributed by how
electors voted at the 2016/19 Federal Elections
L-NP ALP L-NP ALP
May 9-15, 2022 43.5 56.5 47 53
May 2-8, 2022 44 56 45.5 54.5
April 25 – May 1, 2022 44.5 55.5 46 54
April 18-24, 2022 45.5 54.5 47 53
April 11-17, 2022 45 55 46.5 53.5
April 4-10, 2022 43 57 44.5 55.5
March 28 – April 3, 2022 43 57 44.5 55.5
March 21-27, 2022 44.5 55.5 46 54
March 14-20, 2022 42 58 43.5 56.5
March 3-13, 2022 44 56 45.5 54.5
February 24 – March 2, 2022 (Post Ukraine War) 43.5 56.5 45 55
February 14-23, 2022 (Pre-Ukraine War) 43.5 56.5 45 55
January 31 – February 13, 2022 43 57 44.5 55.5
January 17-30, 2022 43.5 56.5 45 55
January 4-16, 2022 44 56 45.5 54.5
2022
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2021 44.5 55.5 46 54
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2021 43.5 56.5 45 55
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2021 44.5 55.5 46 54
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2021 46.5 53.5 48 52
October 16/17 & 23/24, 2021 46 54 47.5 52.5
October 2/3 & 9/10, 2021 47 53 48.5 51.5
September 18/19 & 25/26, 2021 46 54 47.5 52.5
September 4/5 & 11/12, 2021 47.5 52.5 49 51
August 21/22 & 28/29, 2021 45.5 54.5 47 53
Aug 7/8 & 14/15, 2021 46 54 47.5 52.5
July 24/25 & 31/ Aug 1, 2021 46.5 53.5 48 52
July 10/11 & 17/18, 2021 47.5 52.5 49 51
June 12/13 & 19/20, 2021 49.5 50.5 51 49
May 29/30 & June 5/6, 2021 49 51 50.5 49.5
March 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 49.5 50.5 51 49
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 49.5 50.5 51 49
2021
November 14/15 & 21/22, 2020 50.5 49.5 52 48
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2020 50.5 49.5 52 48
August 8/19 & 15/16, 2020 54 46 55.5 44.5
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 51.5 48.5 52.5 47.5
June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020 50.5 49.5 52 48
May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020 52.5 47.5 54.5 45.5
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 51.5 48.5 53 47
February 29/March 1 & 7/8, 2020 47 53 49 51
2020
2019 Federal Election – May 18, 2019 51.5 48.5 51.5 48.5
May 2019 48 52 48.5 51.5
May 4/5, 2019 49 51 49 51
April 27/28, 2019 49 51 49 51
April 20/21, 2019 49 51 49 51
April 6/7, 2019 47.5 52.5 48 52
March 16/17 & 23/24, 2019 45 55 45.5 54.5
February 16/17, 2019 47.5 52.5 48 52
February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019 44.5 55.5 45 55
2019
August 25/26, 2018 46 54 46.5 53.5
August 24, 2018 – Scott Morrison emerges victorious in a three way leadership ballot and becomes Prime Minister
August 18/19, 2018 49.5 50.5 49 51
March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018 49 51 48.5 51.5
March 3/4 & 10/11, 2018 46 54 46.5 53.5
2018

^1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election.

The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

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